Times: The five obstacles to a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine
The Times newspaper reported that the outcome of the Riyadh meeting on Monday to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine will depend on both sides’ willingness to make concessions, but their positions will become clearer during the meeting.
In his report, British journalist Mark Urban identified five major obstacles that he said could determine the success or failure of the negotiations:
First: Details of the ceasefire
The main goal of the talks is to clarify which sites, such as power plants and oil depots, will be off-limits to long-range strikes.
The negotiations will also address Russia’s desire to protect its Black Sea Fleet and energy infrastructure, as well as Ukraine’s demands for broader protection, including preventing Russia from resuming offensive operations.
Second: NATO and security guarantees
Ukraine insists on strong security guarantees from its Western allies, including the possibility of establishing military training bases in Ukraine, while Russia rejects the deployment of Western forces.
Both sides will have to address sensitive security issues to ensure Ukraine’s defense while addressing Russia’s concerns.
Third: Land concession
Ukraine refuses to recognize Russia’s control over the 20% of its currently occupied territory.
A possible settlement could include recognizing the current front lines as the de facto border, with the status of the occupied territories yet to be determined.
However, this risk repeating previous failed agreements, and Ukraine remains wary of Russia’s long-term territorial ambitions.
Fourth: The size of the Ukrainian army and Western weapons
Russia is demanding a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian military and a halt to Western arms shipments.
However, Ukraine’s future security depends on a strong and modernized military, and any restrictions could be seen as an indication that Russia is planning future invasions.
Ukraine and European leaders are likely to reject these demands.
Fifth: Russia’s long-term intentions
While Russia seeks a short-term truce to recover from the war, Ukraine and its allies are concerned about Russia’s long-term goal of reabsorbing Ukraine into its sphere of influence. The key question is whether Russia’s economic and military losses will force it to soften its stance on Ukraine’s independence and security.
Ultimately, the negotiations hinge on whether Russia is willing to accept Ukraine’s sovereignty and security while making concessions, particularly regarding military size and territorial peace, or whether it will pursue its expansionist ambitions.
