The Telegraph newspaper reported that with the Ukrainian counter-attack continuing for four months, and in light of the failure to achieve the expected success, it has become clear that Moscow’s plan may be to make Ukraine exhaust its men, tanks, missiles and missiles.
The scheduled meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok provides a new vision for Russia’s strategy in Ukraine, as well as a warning of broader risks threatening the world.
Putin believes that once equipped and trained maneuver forces are landed in Ukraine, Russia will then be able to launch a major offensive of its own, as early as January.
According to the report, after nearly two years of fighting that can be compared to World War I, this plan is reminiscent of the German Spring Offensive that began in March 1918 and led to the retreat of the Allies and the seizure of a larger area of territory than either side had seized in the four years preceding the war.
This was achieved by the Germans exhausting the enemy while securing massive reserves of men and ammunition behind the lines, in preparation for a devastating attack not unlike what the British had been preparing for, but failed to achieve, during the Battle of the Somme in 1916.
The Telegraph continues, “The problem for Putin is that, in his quest to crush Ukrainian forces, he’s expending huge amounts of ammunition, especially artillery shells and ballistic missiles, and extremely large numbers of tanks.
While the scale of Russian military industrial production is larger than most in the West, and while Moscow continues to mobilize tens of thousands of men every quarter, its core supplies remain insufficient for the level of spending required to launch a major new offensive, and here Pyongyang can play an important role.
The Telegraph report added, “In fact, North Korea has been sending large quantities of missiles and missiles to Russia for at least a year, and the Wagner Group, which was headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, organized many of these shipments.
Last July, Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, visited Pyongyang, negotiating more supplies, as North Korea maintains a massive stockpile of heavy weapons and artillery munitions.
Although much of this equipment is old, it won’t have any effect, especially if Russia resorts to its old tactic to achieve victory, which is to use its enormous numerical strength to crush the enemy, as the Germans did in 1918.
The Telegraph saw that the new Moscow-Pyongyang axis represents a reflection of the roles that prevailed in the Cold War era, when the Soviet Union and China were the largest arms suppliers to North Korea.
The offer continued even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and only ended with the advent of UN sanctions.
So, Russia’s support today serves Kim as a way to respond to the United States, with Beijing’s approval.
But supporting North Korea won’t come without a heavy price.
Pyongyang, suffering from Western sanctions, is in desperate need of oil, food, fertilizers and raw materials, which Russia has in abundance.
According to the Telegraph, “The most troubling aspect of Russia’s thriving relationship is the possibility of providing hard currency and technology for North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, especially the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Russia has enormous capabilities in this area, including its expertise in nuclear weapons, and this could be a game-changer in Pyongyang’s quest to develop an effective nuclear delivery program.
Some analysts pointed out that the United States’ disclosure of Kim’s scheduled visit may be enough to cancel it, but that won’t make any difference, as the deep-rooted ties between the two countries are sufficient for this deadly cooperation to continue and develop without the need for a direct meeting between the two leaders.
The question to ask is: Why was there a need to plan such a meeting in the first place?
The Telegraph said, “For Kim, who is effectively confined within his country’s borders, this will be an opportunity to appear as a global statesman before his colleagues from anti-Western regimes”.
But in reality, there may be something else behind this; Perhaps Putin was thinking of a bargaining chip to encourage the already wavering US administration to put pressure on Kiev to get it to cease fire.
So, the West must now help Ukraine prepare if its current offensive fails, allowing Putin to unleash his own “Battle of the Tsar” (also known as the Spring Offensive of 1918, a series of German offensives along the Western Front during World War I).
The Telegraph concluded its report by saying, “If the 1918 scenario becomes a reality, it will require enormous efforts from the West as well as from Ukraine… The reality is that it would be very costly for everyone, and the potential consequences would be too terrifying to imagine”.
