Reuters: Why did China strangely stand by Putin in his war on Ukraine?

Experts have said that Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to abandon his old friend, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, even as the latter’s decision to send thousands of additional troops to Ukraine and his nuclear threats burden Beijing’s borderless partnership with Moscow.

Instead, the experts added, China will continue its peculiar stance of dialogue and peaceful resolution while refusing to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Thursday that China adheres to an objective and fair position.

The rapprochement between Xi and Putin has increased in recent years, in the absence of trust on both sides in the West.

They reaffirmed their partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine.

However, China is careful not to provide any direct material support that might cause Western sanctions to be imposed on it.

Putin acknowledged those limitations last week when the two men met in Uzbekistan for the first time since the war began, describing Xi as having questions and concerns about the situation in Ukraine and praising his balanced stance.

“I can’t imagine how the situation could change… China doesn’t support war, it doesn’t support conflict, that was very clear from the start,” said Henry Wang Huiao, founder of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization.

Russia says what it is doing in Ukraine is a special operation aimed at undermining its neighbor’s military capabilities and rooting out what it describes as dangerous nationalists.

Although China may have been hoping for a short war, Putin’s battlefield moves in Ukraine, aimed at containing recent defeats, are unlikely to alarm Beijing or change the entrenched nature of the two countries’ relationship, analysts say.

The driving factor remains geopolitics, including Beijing’s rivalry with Washington.

Economic cooperation between the two giant neighbors is likely to be boosted, as China benefits from more and cheaper energy supplies while Russia offsets losses from the EU embargo.

“The most important thing for Xi is that Putin does not fail or that the invasion cause chaos that could cause collateral damage to China, particularly in the economic sphere,” says Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London.

The foreign ministry is putting China first”.

China’s state media provided succinct coverage of Putin’s latest speech, even as it rattled global markets and drew condemnation from Western powers.

However, the statements were widely discussed among the pioneers of the Chinese platform Weibo, similar to Twitter, ranging from support, shock and criticism, without being deleted by the supervisory authorities.

Yuan Jingdong, an assistant professor at the University of Sydney who specializes in Chinese defense and foreign policy, said he expects China to continue walking the fine line of refraining from publicly criticizing Russia nor showing sympathy for Ukraine, while at the same time refraining as much as possible from supporting what it does to Putin.

“Since Putin’s National Security Adviser was in China when Putin made this announcement, there may be some reassurance from China to Russia about the importance of bilateral relations, but also a clear indication of what Russia can actually expect from China,” he added.

And he added, “At this point, it appears that Beijing’s choice is to stay out of the chaos and increased danger posed by the Russian invasion”.