News 12: We’re not a regional power and cannot change the map of the Middle East
Israeli professor and writer Efraim Inbar warned that overconfidence following the recent war against Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah could lead Tel Aviv to make fatal strategic mistakes, emphasizing that Israel isn’t a regional power and cannot change the map of the Middle East, as some politicians claim.
In an article published in the Israeli News 12 newspaper, Inbar explained that Israel’s military successes since October 7—particularly in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and weakening Hezbollah—have created illusions that Tel Aviv has risen to the ranks of a regional power.
Some voices within the political and military establishment, the author continues, have spoken of changing the map of the Middle East.
Inbar likened this euphoria to what happened after the 1967 war, when overconfidence led Israel to its defeat in 1973.
The source of these illusions is a mixture of euphoria over power, an exaggerated reading of the battle results, and a misunderstanding of Israel’s basic strategic reality.
Inbar said that despite the blows Iran’s nuclear program has suffered and the deaths of a number of its elite scientists, Tehran hasn’t abandoned its nuclear dream and may even resume its program, even attacking Israel again if the regime remains in power.
Inbar continued that despite its weakening, Hezbollah remains an influential military force in Lebanon, and the political class there may not dare disarm it, meaning the threat will continue.
Regarding Syria, the author believes that the fall of Bashar al Assad’s regime provided Israel with an opportunity to expand its military influence in Syria and open the way to Iran.
However, it also opened the door to Türkiye, potentially creating a direct point of friction between Israel and Türkiye on Syrian soil.
He emphasized that the war in the Gaza Strip isn’t over yet, as a portion of the Strip remains under Hamas control, which constitutes a “symbolic victory” for the resistance that bolsters its ambitions to exhaust Israel.
He added that the continued detention of Israeli hostages weakens the deterrent effect, while the Israeli army’s performance has demonstrated hesitation and confusion in resolving the battle.
Inbar warned that Gaza—not Iran or Lebanon—will ultimately determine victory or defeat, and that Hamas’s continued presence poses a long-term strategic threat.
Inbar reminded that Israel is ultimately a small country, both in terms of the human resources needed for its military and economically, and that it cannot rely on self-sufficiency in an economically interconnected world.
He explained that its heavy reliance on US aid makes it vulnerable to political shifts in Washington.
He believes that Israel’s strength is measured not only by its military and technological capabilities, but also by the strength of its internal front, referring to the deep divisions that have plagued Israeli society in recent years.
Inbar emphasized that Israeli decision-makers must adopt a more realistic approach based on caution and humility, far from the illusion that Israel is a major regional power.
