New York Times: China got what it wanted from the Trump administration

The New York Times believes that China has succeeded in imposing its will and extracting trade concessions from the Trump administration by leveraging its influence in the rare earth and soybean sectors, while giving the US president the opportunity to market the recent agreement domestically as a victory for the United States.

Chinese President Xi Jinping left his meeting with Trump on Thursday as a confident leader capable of pushing Washington to back down on its tariff policies, a fact confirmed by the outcome of the talks.

Xi used China’s near-total dominance of the rare earth sector and its purchasing power in importing American soybeans to force Trump to reduce tariffs, suspend port fees on Chinese ships, and postpone American export restrictions that would have limited Chinese companies’ access to American technology, in addition to agreeing to extend the trade truce.

According to Julian Goertz, a former White House and State Department official responsible for China affairs under former President Joe Biden, “the Chinese have become bolder in exerting their influence, and they are happy to get any concessions the United States makes”.

Xi appeared to be lecturing when he told Trump that the recent twists and turns in the trade war should be lessons for both of them, according to the Chinese government’s release of the president’s remarks during the meeting held in Busan, South Korea.

The Chinese president said, “Both sides should look at the big picture and focus on the long-term benefits of cooperation, rather than getting caught in a cycle of mutual retaliation”.

Earlier in October, China had significantly escalated tensions with the United States by announcing sweeping restrictions on the sale of rare earth minerals, which are vital minerals used in most modern technologies, and whose supply cuts could cripple American industries.

“After Trump launched his trade and tariff war, China was the only country to hit back at the United States,” says Chu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, noting that China’s biggest gain may be that the United States will think twice before imposing new measures on it.

He added, “If Trump had forced China to implement full export restrictions on rare earth minerals, it would have been a loss for both sides”.

The Chinese president was aware of Trump’s need for a political way out, so he agreed to arrangements that would allow the US president to claim he had secured gains for American farmers and businesses, while China restored almost the previous status quo by resuming purchases of soybeans from the United States and postponing any additional restrictions on rare earth exports.

Trump announced on his plane after the meeting that President Xi had agreed to take further steps to stop the flow of chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl into the United States, and also confirmed China’s pledge to buy more American soybeans.

Trump later wrote on Truth Social: “Our farmers will be very happy! I would like to thank President Xi for that!”

Trump also said he would halve tariffs on Chinese goods as part of pressure on Beijing to do more to stop fentanyl smuggling.

He explained that this measure would reduce overall tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47% instead of 57%.

Following the meeting between the two leaders, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced in a statement that it would suspend for one year the restrictions on rare earth metals that it had announced in October, without referring to the restrictions announced last April.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce also confirmed that the two sides agreed to extend the tariff truce for a year, after it was due to expire on November 10.

Several analysts believe that China emerged victorious in the trade confrontation with the United States as a result of the lack of a clear vision on the part of the Trump administration.

Jonathan Chen, a researcher at the Brookings Institution and a former China policy analyst at the CIA, described Washington’s approach as tactics without strategy, while Beijing succeeded in turning the issue into a mock-and-hit game.

In the absence of a final agreement and with no clear vision for the continuation of the truce between the two countries, Chung Ja Ian, a professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, says: “Perhaps I’ve become pessimistic because I have seen this scenario many times… These are agreements that are easy to reverse and accuse the other party of bad faith”.

Chinese experts assert that the most important factor in Beijing’s relationship with Washington is Trump’s stance on cooperation with China.