Macron faces a difficult challenge facing Putin and Erdogan in Nagorno Karabakh, by preserving his influence in this file and meeting the aspirations of the strong pro-Armenian movement

French President Emmanuel Macron finds himself facing a double challenge since the ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh, which is to maintain some influence in this file in the face of Moscow and Ankara, while meeting the aspirations of the strong pro-Armenian movement that demands France to take a strong position.

After he condemned the Turkish intervention alongside Baku and the sending of Syrian “jihadists” loyal to Turkey to the conflict zone during the six-week battles between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the French president moved to call for “international supervision” of the ceasefire that was concluded on November 9 under the auspices of Russia.

Macron adheres to the role of the Minsk group mediating in this conflict, which includes the United States, France and Russia since 1994, which, in his opinion, should “fully restore its role” in the search for a political settlement to the conflict dating back to the era of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Nagorno Karabakh region, located in Azerbaijan and inhabited by the majority of Armenians, declared its independence unilaterally in 1991.

France expresses its fear that Turkey, with Russia’s consent, will be able to participate in peacekeeping operations, especially since the framework of this mission remains unclear.

However, a number of observers believe that the Minsk group, which is considered a reflection of the post-Cold War era, is no longer compatible with the current geopolitical reality, which is witnessing an American retreat and a strong return to Russia and regional powers on the international scene.

“The Minsk group, as it was originally formed, has ended,” said Didier Pune, an expert at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris. 

Vladimir Putin struck a teacher while the Turks scored points, whether we like it or not.

He adds, “France finds itself outside the game, because it has stood by Armenia, even though its position as a mediator necessitates neutrality”.

In fact, the French executive authority found itself facing great pressure from the Armenian community of about 600,000 in France and part of the political class sympathetic to the issue of the genocide of Armenians and fearful of Turkish “expansion” in the Mediterranean and the Caucasus.

For his part, Emmanuel Macron emphasized that “no one is completely neutral in the conflict,” noting that Russia views the region first of all as a direct “extension” to it, while Turkey has “ambitions” in it.

The French President stressed that “the United States must participate by our side again,” relying on President-elect Joe Biden.

Some observers believe that France should abandon its participation in the presidency of the Minsk Group due to its proximity to Armenia and its already troubled relations with Turkey.

“Countries like Germany and Sweden that have more balanced relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan can probably do more,” said Thomas de Waal, an expert at the Carnegie Europe Center for Research.

On Thursday, the Azerbaijani parliament called on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to exclude France from the Minsk group, after the French Senate approved a text calling for recognition of Nagorno Karabakh.

But French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian believes that France, a member of the UN Security Council, maintains “its political weight on this issue” even if “its power is less than that of Russia”.

However, the French executive finds itself embarrassed after the Senate approved the text on Wednesday supporting the recognition of Nagorno Karabakh, although it is not binding.

Macron warned, “As soon as France recognizes Nagorno Karabakh, it will not have diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan,” and it will lose any weight in the negotiations. 

He ruled out any step in this direction.

Paris prefers at the present time to focus on humanitarian aid to Armenia, to which refugees are pouring in from regions that Azerbaijan has regained control.