The world could change sometimes in a very dramatic ways, many examples the history tell us about.
What is the definition of alliance & how the United States sees it & how it treats their allies?
What is the definition of alliance & how Russia sees it & how it treats their allies?
Two similar questions each one for the biggest two nations, but the answer is way different in every ways.
Let’s start with the US, let’s first put Israel aside because Israel is above any standards, the United States never truly respect & treat their allies more than taking advantage out of them as much as possible, they even force them by one way or another to take responsibility of some issues that been caused by the US at the first place, America always can so easily give up on their allies so easily, take Mubarak of Egypt, even Benali of Tunisia after the Arab spring, take many of leaders in Latin America, take the poor Sakashvili of Georgia, the United State & their NATO disciples, they convinced him & encourage him to stood against Russia & continue to play the stupid old game of provoking the Russian Bear, luckily in 2008 the Russian (Medved) was kind enough for not tarring Georgia of Sakashvili apart while the whole western world seeing his Butt get kicked by the Russian Bear without any one of them move a finger or even scream ask for helping the poor Georgian president.
Americas history in giving up on their allies are so long.
As for Russia the situation is 0180 different, you just need to realize how the Russian think, Russia will go anywhere with their allies, you just want to be honest, respectful & loyal, they will do the same to you for the sake of both countries interests.
JASTA (Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act) is it just a law or it will be historical turning point.
Forming Alliance in definition is about contractual relationship between two sovereign independent nations so that both countries pledged to work and co-operate and mutual in peace & war time.
The Idea for a certain nation to chose the country that wants to form alliance with, it’s a question not necessarily be tentative, it’s a matter of convenience.
So, when a certain nation decides to give up on their allies, it reach this conclusion to take such decision, only when it realize that it have the power & capability to stand alone against whom ever get against this nation without the need of get support from any other nation, with realizing that having such alliance will put extra weight & obligations on their shoulder without getting any gain in exchange.
Maybe that’s justify the reason behind making the Great Britain in some point in the past not forming an alliance with the United States, especially during peace time.
Perhaps these two reasons are behind the possibility of making the United States move toward the direction to give up on their ally the Saudi Arabia.
Let’s get back on how that alliance between the US & Saudi Arabia starts, the first move regarding forming this alliance was made by the founder King of Saudi Arabia Abdulaziz Alsoud & the US President Franklin Roosevelt during their famous meeting on the US battleship USS Quincy on February 14th 1945 at the Suez Canal.
After that famous meeting & for upcoming six decades the relationship between the two countries was more than great, the KSA is the biggest oil producer in the world & owns a fifth of global oil reserves, therefore they are one of the biggest controller of oil prices & producing quantity, so they always managed the oil prices up or down in a way that move perfectly along with the American interests.
Everything went that good & even in the second gulf war when Iraq Invaded Kuwait, the US army was the leader of that alliance to defend KSA & liberate Kuwait from Iraq’s invasion.
On September 11th 2001 everything seems to get change after discovering the participation of 15 Saudi citizens among the 19 men of the attacks.
That discovery caused some severe tension & anger in the relations between the two countries, but the US President George W. Bush succeeded in mitigation due to his good relationship with the Saudi ruler family members.
During that time also Al-Qaida start launching attacks against foreigners & Western interests and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and the kingdom has been busy in a very big campaigns to address the operations of the organization and its members arrested.
After the so called Arab Spring, the Saudi Arabia was in front line in order to overthrown Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad regime at the time funding militants & Syrian opposition with money & armaments with political support to any Syrian opposition at time of them seeing the US stand in slow towards any serious movement to put Assad out of power which made the Saudis angry & to make matters worse is the position of the United States, also towards Iran, Assad’s strongest ally in the region, which Saudi Arabia sees them as adversary of them with constant fear of the Shiite tide in the region, especially after the improvement of relations, between the United States and Iran after the nuclear deal, which has increased the ire of Saudi Arabia to the United States.
The strange thing is that, when you the US Senate introduced the draft of JASTA Act, for vote.
The concept of JASTA act is to criminalize the Saudi Arabia with the 9/11 incidents & put Saudi Arabia guilty & responsible for these attacks with the fact that the majority of perpetrators are in fact Saudis, the JASTA act has also give the right to the victim’s families of these events, the right to sue Saudi Arabia and claim damages.
Despite the US President Barack Obama’s veto right against the draft law, the law passed with immediate effect and voted by an overwhelming majority, which was very surprising.
At the US Senate House was to vote on this law by 97 senator-for-one objected, that voting result 97 to 1 revealed the size of malice & the big hatred toward Saudi Arabia the biggest US ally in the Middle East and with whom that shared the full support in all US wars over more than seventy years, is it possible after all that the Saudi Arabia just have only one supporting vote in the Senate?
There is a possibility that the true fact reason behind the JASTA act is not the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act as they described it, in fact this act is nothing but a tool to avenge this ally, which has been acquitted over the investigations of the Security and Foreign Relations Committee at the US Congress for any direct, formal or indirect role in 9/11 attacks.
So what is the real reason behind that JASTA law?
This law formed for no other reason but because the idea of the survival of the alliance between the United States and Saudi Arabia is no longer meaningful or useful to the United States.
Mostly after this long strategic relationship between the United States & Saudi Arabia, that was built by King Abdulaziz Alsaud & the US President Franklin Roosevelt at that famous meeting on the US battleship USS Quincy in 1945 at the Suez Canal was over.
Now the serious in this matter is that there are more than $ 750 billion in investments, deposits and assets for Saudi Arabia located in the United States also include $ 119 billion in Treasury bonds.
All these amounts of deposits & assets will be seized and freeze by the US Government, maybe the possible to be the first installment expected to compensate the victims of 9/11 attacks, which estimated by experts at about $ 3.3 trillion, which means if these estimates was ratified, the Saudi oil will continue to be dependent to the United States for decades, until the full compensation required from the Saudi Arabia being paid.
The bottom line from that is, we learn the lessons that there is no immunity for nations not immune to the Allies nor friendship with the Arabs, all these considerations fade when the US administration decides to bring it down without any consideration for those who inhabited the White House.
Now the Biggest Question pops out is it Russia will be the main strategic ally for Saudi Arabia?
What are the Saudis capabilities to fight back JASTA act?
In fact Saudi Arabia own six possible ways to hit back:
1.immediate withdrawal of all Saudi assets in the US banks, which are valued at around 750 billion dollars, which would cause huge financial pressure on the shoulders of the United States economy that is already deteriorating.
2.The Saudi Arabia have A lot of keys, information & capabilities that the United States was gaining a lot of benefits from, if the Saudis decides to stop every type of cooperation in Security & Intelligence issues with the United States, that might cause a huge shock security wise for the United States & their security which they cannot overcome from it.
3.Military Pressure by Saudi Arabia closes its airspace against all American military activities and prevent the entry into or transit Naval forces to the Saudi territorial waters in the Gulf or the Red Sea as well stop buying American weapons and equipment.
4.The Diplomatic pressure by decreasing the diplomatic presentation of the Saudi Arabia or cutting all diplomatic ties with the US.
5.Using oil similar to what took place during October 1973 war (Yom Kippur War) for short period of time, the Saudi Arabia can decrees oil producing to very dramatic low levels which can leads to increasing the oil prices for very high numbers.
6.Forming alliance & cooperation with Russia & Turkey.
In general it’s not that easy in my point of view to cut these so complicated & mixed ties between Saudi Arabia & the United States due to the old relations between the two countries, it’s difficult to replace such relationships unless gravely missed speeches occurrence least that can be described as such as an earthquake.
These are historical facts.
Maybe & again maybe forming Russian Saudi Alliance could be that earthquake.