Ghouta & beyond

The Syrian crisis has entered one of the most important moments, after nearly eight years of war in this country, after the fighting fronts fell after the great success that happened on the ground through the achievements in the field & clean the center & west Syria with large area of the Syria desert from the terrorism of ISIS & Al Qaeda related militants & other armed groups, sending most into internal exile for the terrorist groups in Idlib, the area that was turned to a large prison for them.

The Syrian army has recently succeeded in restoring most of the southern countryside of Aleppo & the eastern countryside of Idlib to Abu Dahour airport, here the military operation stopped temporarily, based on the agreement between Russia & Turkey.

After that pocket was restored, forces called up too quickly.

The eastern Ghouta is now an important battle & urgent necessity.

A large military have turned towards the front of Ghouta because of its geographical proximity to Damascus, which is very dangerous & the focus of the military & security to drain out the armed groups off the capital.

The eastern Ghouta is the hiding place where thousands of armed groups estimated to number between 20 & 25 thousand armed men, including 8000 armed with good training.

The eastern Ghouta terrorists are responsible for the killing of thousands of civilians in Damascus through past years, with mortars or car bombs, with mortar attacks on the capital, killing dozens of civilians in recent days.

The direct cause of the Syrian army’s move is, according to confirmed information, to thwart a major military offensive planned by the United States and its allies by bringing US-backed groups at Al-Tanf base of 3500 trained well by US intelligence with full Jordanian and British involvement with heavy equipment under the protection of the coalition air force, to merge with the Saudi-backed Gauta terrorists in general to launch a major attack on Damascus, just as what they tried to do before with same way but in larger numbers.

Russia accused the United States of planning & working on that attack, Russia’s entry was in the process of restoration Ghouta, the other Russian response is to the United States in fact unfold on the ground to reflect the political negotiations.

The closure of this strategic front is tantamount to a decisive blow to the main suppliers of supports of terrorists & ending their plans for breach or cause dangerous threat to Damascus and central Syria.

This operation will withdraw an important card of Washington, which wants to bring the situation back to the year 2012.

The American attempt to link the epicenter in Deir Ezzor where the US backed Syria’s democratic forces that plans to open loophole to Al-Boukamal area in order to link it with Al-Tanf through eastern Ghouta, to reach also Daraa factions to control the Badia and cut Damascus road to Baghdad & Tehran.

Washington has sought to create a force of tens of thousands of fighters on the north east of Syria, to hold the border with Iraq & lad the invasion of Al-Bukamal to implement the scheme & the desert through Euphrates basin, the area that contains oil & natural gas wells, with plan to hit the project of natural gas & oil pipelines from Iran & Iraq to the Mediterranean via Syria.

The US administration is trying to stabilize its position in Iraq in order to isolate it, by creating a new situation,

Washington may establish a political process with a new reality that will lead Iraq to support its allies against Iran.

Where a large section of them are against Iran, such as the Sadrist movement & a lot of personalities like the former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, in addition to the tribal groups & the popular narrowed by the practices of corrupt power parties in Baghdad with the recent increased stories & incidents of Iraqi officials corruption.

Washington is trying to move terrorists from western and northern Iraq to be used as political pressure on Baghdad & against the Shea popular mobilization forces.

The United States wants a sectarian war to continue because it has great benefits.

The strike of this project starts from the eastern Ghouta, losing its ability & cutting off its link through the desert separating Syria form Iraq.

The quick move towards the Damascus gorge, burning the most important papers for Washington & its followers near the capital, with bringing the end of the armed presence in that region which is an urgent need.

There is no way that the situation in Ghouta will be decided either militarily or through a settlement.

While the current situation shows the military gain that was made by the Syria Army, is extremely big, by dividing Ghouta into three pockets
Duma,Harasta,The Southern Area
The terrorists are more likely will be transferred to Idlib the big prison.

The groups located in Al Ghouta which they share the area, follow several countries with loyalty & funding:

1. Jaish Al-Islam: A Wahhabi organization, headquartered in the city of Douma, directly affiliated to Saudi Arabia.

2. HTS (Nasra Front): The military wing of Al-Qaeda in Syria (Salafi Jihadi), which is generally followed by Qatar and Turkey somewho.

3. Al-Rahman Corps: A radical Salafist organization that integrated with HTS (Nasra Front) where it’s difficult to differentiate between them & they share the same regions & cities and also belong to Qatar & Turkey.

4. Ahrar Sham: Related to Muslim Brotherhood & Salafist elements. They mainly overlapping of dependence between Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Turkey.

The battles between these groups and the disagreement over the leadership & dependency between Qatar & Saudi Arabia have made them always fight, so that the eastern Ghouta has become several rival (Islamic) emirates!!!

It is natural that countries supporting these groups, such as the United States, Turkey, Qatar & Saudi Arabia, oppose the movements of the Syrian army.

The liberation of Ghouta means the end of terrorism in the vicinity of Damascus, this is what those countries don’t want, but they are somewhat silent waiting for something to happen!

The scenarios are summed up in two scenarios: fighting or surrendering with the known direction to teleport them to Idlib.

There are thousands of terrorists in one of the largest terrorist area in the world today, competing with Afghanistan, however there are no certain numbers of armed militants in Ghouta which will be sent to Idlib.

How many what they known «green buses» they will need (they will need more than 200 green buses).

This evacuation without a doubt is very big operation, similar to the evacuation of Dunkirk port in World War II!!!

What will happen if the guerrillas decide to fight, which this well is fading now after the current situation on the ground?

Most of them are thinking of Idlib… Few will fight to death, but there is still a few days maybe to have a clear sight to what will happened.

Still there are a few lessons from past experiences that must be learned

Suicide operations against the Syrian army.

Intensify the bombing of Damascus with available rockets, mortars and security breaches in the capital to carry out bombings in response to the attack by the Syrian army to inflict the greatest number of civilian casualties.

The use of chemical weapons… This is what we’re waiting for, which planned from the very beginning.

The representation of chemical bombardment will not be surprising, and here the US & its allies will be exploited by inventing a new chemical attack story to stop the Syrian/Russian military strikes.

As it obvious the battle in Ghouta based on the current situation & information of series ongoing negotiations with the militants in Ghouta to surrender led By the Russia.

The question now, what’s next after Ghouta

Probably, it’s the area in the South of Dara & Qunaitra.

The battle fronts are unfolding only few left, perhaps we’re getting closer to the end of this war & move to dialogue & for rebuild.