Geopolitics: Who could succeed Putin?

The French Geopolitics website posted a report about the rumors circulating on the health of the Russian president.

In these past several months, rumors circulated regarding the health condition of Vladimir Putin, where the Geopolitics website believes that if no one is officially appointed, two of Putin’s favorite candidates are expected to run the Kremlin.

The report spoke that every day brings its share of new speculations about Vladimir Putin’s health.

There are those who indicate that he suffers from leukemia or thyroid cancer, Parkinson’s disease, and dementia, while the latest rumors reported, on January 4, that the Russian president is dying!

The French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, stressed that “nothing is confirmed or shared by the various allies they work with”.

Geopolitics website report indicated that since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, rumors have accumulated.

Last spring, the Russian leader had received emergency medical assistance after a video conference with advisers and military commanders, according to the British Daily Mail.

The Paris Match revealed that, since at least 2019, agents have been tasked with collecting the Russian president’s excrement during his trips abroad, to prevent host countries from analyzing it.

The report highlighted that at the end of last May; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied all the rumors that had spread, during an interview broadcast on the French TF1 channel, saying: “I don’t think that a healthy person can see signs of any disease in this man”.

But the question arises, however: what will happen if Vladimir Putin dies?

Who will be Vladimir Putin’s successor as leader of Russia?

The report stated that in October 2021, when asked about his possible successor; Vladimir Putin replied to the CNBC channel “I prefer not to respond… We’ll wait for the next elections”.

It’s worth noting that, thanks to a constitutional amendment in 2020, which resets his term to zero, Vladimir Putin can remain in power until 2036, when he will be between 83 and 84 years old.

In the meantime, and if the Russian president was forced to withdraw from exercising power at some point, Article 92 of Chapter IV of the Russian Constitution states that the prime minister will implement the transition period.

It’s also up to the prime minister to replace him in the event that the president ceases to exercise his powers before the term expires in the event of resignation, or permanent incapacity for health reasons to exercise the powers entrusted to him, or dismissal or death according to the constitution, but for a period of 90 days only”.

During these three months; Elections should be organized to elect a new head of state.

And whatever the case, power will temporarily return to Mikhail Mishustin, the prime minister who has been appointed since January 2020.

Mishustin a 56-year-old technocrat, was a tax official in the past, meaning that he’s not part of the so called “soldiers’ bloc”.

Mishustin wasn’t known to the general public before he assumed the position of Prime Minister, but he’s very popular, and he’s still a specialist in the post-Soviet space, but this won’t make him the preferred candidate for succession, especially since Mikhail Mishustin is considered in Political circles are a nice and helpless personality, without great ambitions, according to the British Daily Mirror newspaper.

Vladimir Putin could also appoint a successor to him, and in this case, according to the estimations, Putin may most likely refer to someone who believes that he’s the most qualified person to maintain the course of matters and to ensure the stability of the country.

Given the way elections are organized in Russia, one can imagine that the Russian people will partly follow suit.

The report added that in early May, when the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, which is allegedly headed by a former official in the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, announced the upcoming surgery of Vladimir Putin for an unspecified type of cancer, there were those who suggested that he might be replaced by Nikolai Patrushev, who’s currently the secretary of the Russian National Security Council.

According to the report, this name is regularly mentioned along with that of Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, as potential natural successors to Vladimir Putin.

These two men, who are very close to the current president of the Kremlin, were among the first to know of the intention to launch the war in Ukraine.

Nikolai Patrushev is considered the right-hand of the Russian president and, according to US intelligence, would have suggested that he continue his offensive in Ukraine.

According to Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovacha, “There are many similarities between Putin and Patrushev’s thinking, the latter is staunchly conservative and anti-liberal.

They’re now united against the United States, which Patrushev views as a rebellious force, also breaking free from the rules”.

Finally the report pointed out that Nikolai Patrushev and Sergey Shoigu will have a suitable profile to succeed Putin and will allow the continuation of the current version of the Russian leadership, and if either of them comes to power, nothing will change, including the course of the war in Ukraine.