Foreign Affairs: Trump led Latin America into the arms of China… will Biden take it back?

The American magazine “Foreign Affairs” said that the administration of President Donald Trump has adopted an “aggressive approach” towards Latin America, which has backfired as governments of the region have united against Washington.

The magazine stated – in a report by the researcher in international relations, Oliver Stwinkel – that two years ago, John Bolton, who was then White House national security advisor, called the authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua a “troika of tyranny” and faced the three countries with imposing harsh sanctions and adopting a rhetoric the threat.

“Today, we proudly announce to everyone that the Monroe Doctrine (after US President James Monroe) is still alive and well,” Bolton said in April 2019, referring to the principle behind the long and traumatic history of US interventions in Latin America.

Foreign Affairs considered that the Trump administration’s aggressive policy toward Latin American countries has prompted the region’s leaders to search for other partners who can balance Washington’s influence, a role that China was fully prepared to play and actually became more influential and powerful than Washington at almost all levels.

In Venezuela, sanctions have marginalized US companies, creating an ideal opportunity for Chinese companies to expand their influence, and if President Nicolas Maduro’s regime collapses, Beijing will be in a good position to dominate the country’s reconstruction efforts.

In Brazil, despite President Jair Bolsonaro’s anti-China rhetoric and his efforts to strengthen relations with the United States, the volume of trade between the two countries fell to its lowest level in 11 years, while intra-trade flourished with Beijing. 

Also, 34% of Brazilian exports go to the Chinese market, and China’s rapid economic recovery from the Corona pandemic is likely to increase this percentage.

The magazine confirms that Latin American leaders watched closely how Trump insulted Bolsonaro repeatedly, by surprising him, for example, by imposing tariffs on Brazilian products, and the lesson they drew was simple and clear, which is that partnership with Washington carries great economic and political risks.

On the other hand, the magazine believes that US President-elect Joe Biden has an opportunity to adopt a more constructive approach to Beijing’s growing influence in the region.

The matter will require a set of steps, including avoiding antagonizing Latin American leaders and instead emphasizing common interests, and the new administration will have to deal with an ugly impression established by the Trump administration, which is that Washington’s policy is largely driven by the desire to contain China rather than support the path of economic development. For the countries of the region.

The less threatening Washington’s tone appears, the more Latin American leaders will accept that it plays the role of a counterweight to Chinese influence, so the Biden administration should explicitly distance itself from this approach because it was a valuable gift to the Chinese who defend the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, a principle that it supports Powerfully the governments of the region.

In this context, the Biden administration will have to make clear from day one, for example, that the scenario of military intervention in Venezuela is not on the table, and to put an end to the wide package of sanctions that only make Venezuelans poorer.

The next administration – the magazine adds – must also formulate a positive agenda on issues of common concern, as it can return to the World Health Organization and adopt more generous policies to help poor countries provide masks, ventilators and vaccines against the Coronavirus, and measures such as these would It would go a long way in countering the growing Chinese influence in the region.

Washington must also confirm and deepen its cooperation with local partners to promote human rights, protect the environment and support civil society.

It can also be an ally in Latin America’s war against corruption, drug trafficking and cross-border crime, and a source of economic aid, especially in light of the current crisis in the region.

US presidential diplomacy – the magazine concludes – can also play a pivotal role in ending the acute polarization that Latin America knows, and President-elect Joe Biden may be the right person for this role thanks to his extensive knowledge of regional affairs and thanks to his moderate and pragmatic style, which are elements that may enable him to connect Meaningful connections with left-wing leaders (Bolivia, Mexico, and Argentina) and right-wing leaders (Brazil) or with center-right leaders (Colombia and Chile).