Few details on the possible normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is determined to reach a military agreement that obligates the United States to defend the Kingdom in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel, and that it won’t disrupt the agreement even if Israel doesn’t make major concessions to the Palestinians in order to establish an independent state.

The agreement may fall short of the stringent NATO-style defense guarantees that the Kingdom initially sought when this issue was first discussed between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US President Joe Biden during his visit to the Kingdom in July 2022.

The agreement may look like treaties concluded by the United States with Asian countries, or if this isn’t approved by Congress, it may be similar to US agreement with Bahrain, which hosts the Fifth Fleet of the US Navy.

This type of agreement doesn’t require Congress approval.

Washington could also improve any agreement by classifying Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, a status already granted to Israel.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand wouldn’t accept anything less than binding guarantees from the United States to protect the Kingdom in case of facing attack, such as targeting oil sites with drones or rockets, as the case of the incident took place on September 14, 2019.

Concluding an agreement granting US protection to the world’s largest oil exporter in exchange for normalization with Israel would reshape the Middle East by bringing together two old rivals and linking Riyadh to Washington after China’s interventions in the region.

This will be a diplomatic victory for Biden to boast about before the US elections in 2024.

The Palestinians may receive relief from some Israeli restrictions, but such moves won’t live up to their aspirations for statehood, and the Saudi-Israeli peace agreement will be similar to other agreements reached by Arab countries and Israel over the past four decades, as the Palestinian issue will take a back seat.

Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but it wants something for itself.

According to US official, the criteria for the defense agreement with Saudi Arabia are still under discussion.

The US official added that any treaty won’t be an alliance based on a treaty or something like that… It will be a mutual defense understanding that is less than a complete treaty.

The issue would be similar to the United States’ relationship with Israel, which receives the most advanced US weapons and conducts joint air force and missile defense training with Washington.

The Saudi Crown Prince requested a treaty similar to NATO, however Washington is reluctant to reach the point of committing to what is stipulated in Article Five of the NATO agreement, which stipulates that launching an attack on any member is an attack on all allies.

The US administration may consider concluding an agreement similar to what exists with Japan and other allied Asian countries, under which the United States pledges military support, but is less explicit regarding the possibility of deploying US forces, as Congress won’t approve it.

There is another type that doesn’t require approval by Congress, which is the agreement signed with Bahrain on September 13, in which the United States pledged to deter and confront any external aggression, but it also stipulated that the two governments would consult to determine the nature of the action that would be taken, if they decided at all to take action.

Washington said that Saudi Arabia may obtain the designation of a major non-NATO ally, a step that has been considered for a long time.

This classification, which was obtained by several Arab countries such as Egypt, includes a number of benefits such as training.

Riyadh is compromising on some demands to help reach an agreement, including its plans related to civilian nuclear technology.

Saudi Arabia is ready to sign Article 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, which establishes a framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation with the United States, a step that Riyadh had previously refused to take.

As for the Israeli side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the prospect of reaching a what he calls it a historic peace with Saudi Arabia, the heart of the Islamic world, however in order to reach that, Netanyahu must obtain the approval of his allies in his government ruling coalition, which refuses to make any concessions to the Palestinians.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview with Fox News last month that the Kingdom is gradually approaching the normalization of relations with Israel.

He spoke about Israel’s need to facilitate the lives of the Palestinians, without mentioning the establishment of a Palestinian state.

The Saudi Crown Prince is insisting on some commitments from Israel to show that he isn’t abandoning the Palestinians and that he seeks to leave the door open to a two-state solution.

These commitments include demanding that Israel transfer some of the lands it controls in the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority, limit settlement activity, and stop any steps aimed at annexing parts of the West Bank, and Saudi Arabia also promised to provide financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said that any deal must recognize the Palestinian right to establish a state on the 1967 borders, including East Jerusalem, and the necessity of stopping settlement construction, however all sources ruled out that a Saudi-Israeli agreement would address these thorny issues.

Netanyahu has previously said that the Palestinians shouldn’t have veto power in any peace agreement.

But even if the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia reach an agreement, obtaining the support of representatives in the US Congress remains a challenge.

Republicans and members of Biden’s Democratic Party previously denounced Riyadh’s military intervention in Yemen, its steps to support oil prices, and its role in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

The Saudi Crown Prince denied that he gave order to kill Khashoggi who was writing for the Washington Post.

As for the US president, Joe Biden is seeking for an agreement establishing US-Israeli-Saudi front that would curb China’s diplomatic outreach and tours in the region after Beijing was able to mediate a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

There was a feeling that the United States had abandoned the region, as China sneak in to the Gulf region.