Will Erdoğan send the Syrian opposition to Ukraine to fight against Russia?

By: Alexander Nazarov

Russian media reported information about the start of the arrival of a large number of mercenaries to Ukraine from the territories under Turkish control in Syria and Iraq to participate in the war against Russia.

All in all, the only reason the United States has not waged a direct war against Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union is its lack of self-sacrificing soldiers.

A war, even with the use of conventional weapons, even if it is against a weak Russia, foreshadows its extreme bloodiness, which is considered unacceptable to American society.

In the 1990s, the Anglo-Saxons managed to find a human resource represented by the separatists and Islamists in Chechnya and Dagestan, but their numbers were relatively small, and that conflict was resolved thanks to the efforts of Putin and Akhmad Kadyrov.

However, luck smiled at the Anglo-Saxons in 2014, with the emergence of a relatively large country in the world, stupid enough to choose a clown for its presidency and willingness to sacrifice itself, by entering a war against Russia, for the sake of US interests.

NATO is trying, in any case, to rule out a direct clash with Russia, by compensating for the lack of modern weapons in the Ukrainian armed forces by sending manpower to a “meat grinder” during the battle.

Therefore, we find that the magnitude of the Ukrainian losses is not surprising.

Since the start of the offensive on June 4, Ukraine has lost 26,000 soldiers, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

Ukraine is gradually exhausting its potential for mobilization, as nearly eight million Ukrainians have left the country, and Ukrainian men, on a large scale, evade conscription, pick them up from the streets and shops to send to the front of course, under these conditions, foreign mercenaries become a valuable resource.

According to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the total number of foreign mercenaries in the ranks of the Ukrainian armed forces, since the beginning of the war, has reached 11 thousand people, and that the largest group of them arrived from Poland (more than 2.6 thousand people), then the United States and Canada (900 people), and from Georgia (800 people), followed by Britain and Romania (from each country 700 people and more), then Croatia (more than 300 people), France and the areas controlled by Türkiye in Syria (200 people and more than each).

About 4.9 thousand of them were killed and about 4.8 thousand left, because they saw that what was happening did not look like a conflict with a weakly armed enemy in the Middle East.

Now, about two thousand foreign mercenaries are fighting in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

At the same time, as a rule, these are well-trained and experienced fighters, which the Ukrainian command uses in the decisive offensive.

Last year, foreign mercenaries played an important role, during the Ukrainian attack on Kharkov province.

Now, too, they are being deployed in the rear, and in the positions where the Russian forces succeed in penetrating on the Kobyansk front in the Kharkov province.

At this time, it seems that the Turkish president is close to exhausting his ability to pursue an effective and independent foreign policy.

The rapid burning of foreign exchange reserves to support the lira before the presidential elections led Türkiye to approach bankruptcy.

Erdoğan urgently needs to find a financier willing to fill the giant gaps in the country’s budget.

Russia cannot shoulder the task of spending on Türkiye on its own, and it has become less seeking to buy its loyalty.

Likewise, the capabilities of the Arab Gulf states to help Türkiye have also become limited.

China can buy Türkiye, but only with its political stance, which is unacceptable to Erdoğan for many reasons.

Thus, the United States remains, and most importantly Europe.

I think, Erdoğan’s latest steps should not be evaluated as a sharp and final change in his policy of maneuvering between the poles.

Recall that, in recent days, he released the Ukrainian Nazis from the Azov Regiment, agreed to accept Sweden’s accession to NATO, announced a new page in relations with the United States, as well as renewed his application to join the European Union, in which he had the support of the United States etc…

However, according to my point of view, this is not a game changer, but rather an increase in the value of the bet in the previous game, because Erdoğan now needs a much larger sum.

Like a Turkish ice-cream seller, he brandished a candy prize in front of the West’s nose, but Washington must now make the effort to get what it wants.

Besides, Brussels will have to lift trade restrictions and pay Erdoğan, so that he does not claim EU membership.

On the other hand, Russia will wait for it to face a dose of Erdoğan’s blackmail, because the stab in the back from Türkiye, in the circumstances of the Ukrainian attack, is more sensitive.

I believe that in the next step we will see Turkish warships escorting Ukrainian grain, and sending Turkish-controlled militants to Ukraine.

It is interesting that Syria has its “Ukrainians” who believe that destroying their country with the help of foreign sponsors is the best way to happiness and prosperity.

Most of them are under Erdoğan’s control and he will now use them in his deadly games.