What Future hold for BiBi?

Israeli circles hold the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, responsible for the catastrophic failure on October 7, and it seems that his political fate has become clear since that day.

When analyzing the situation after 50 days of unprecedented bombardment that left Gaza in catastrophe, which came as respond for the catastrophic failure on October 7, the fate of Bibi, the nickname of Netanyahu, is set without a shadow of a doubt.

Netanyahu’s attempt to save himself from what awaits him when the guns fall silent, he’s is still trying to postpone the reckoning as much as possible.

Netanyahu himself, who pushed Israel towards a series of elections, over the past two years, to escape prosecution in corruption cases, has become aware, today, that as soon as the current war ends, his rapid downfall will begin.

Meanwhile, opinion polls conducted in Israel shows the increasing popularity of the National Camp bloc, leader who’s currently a member of the War Cabinet, Benny Gantz, and his significant superiority over the Likud party led by Netanyahu.

Polls also showed, the fall of the far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, below the electoral threshold.

If the Knesset elections are held now, the opposition parties, including the National Camp, along with the Arab parties, will obtain 79 seats, compared to 41 seats for the current coalition parties.

The Likud will lose about half of its electoral power, and will gain 18 seats.

Also, Gantz outperformed Netanyahu in terms of suitability to assume the position of prime minister.

The poll showed a decline in the popularity of the current prime minister, in light of the war on Gaza, even among his party’s voters, 52% of whom said he was most suitable to head the government, while 26% considered Gantz more suitable for the position.

Since the beginning of the war, Netanyahu has been attacked by his political opponents who called on him to step down, most notably the leader of the Israeli opposition, Yair Lapid, who last week submitted a proposal to dismiss the prime minister, because the time has come to replace him, indicating that the formation of a unity government led by Likud, will enjoy broad support.

Lapid said, “Netanyahu has lost the trust of his citizens, the trust of the international community, and most dangerously, the trust of the security services”.

In addition to many Israelis holding Netanyahu responsible for the military and security failure in the events of October 7, what has become evident is that the high-level goals set by the Prime Minister for the aggression against the Gaza Strip seem unachievable after 50 days of war, during which he was forced, Under Israeli popular pressure, specifically from the families of prisoners held by the resistance, as well as the high number of human casualties among the occupation soldiers, to conclude a prisoner exchange deal, accompanied by a four-day extendable truce.

Netanyahu’s performance during the ongoing war on Gaza was overshadowed by his preoccupation, especially with maintaining his position as prime minister, as this ensured the security of his political future and the cancellation of his trial in corruption files.

Thus, Netanyahu will have to wage a conflict on multiple fronts in the internal arena, the most important aspect of which is to evade responsibility for the intelligence failure in preventing Hamas attack from occurring, and to place responsibility on the intelligence and security agencies, similar to what he did to the investigators and public prosecutors in the corruption allegations that Netanyahu accused with.

Netanyahu’s professionalism and abilities are questioned, and holding him responsible isn’t just out of political motives.

At the beginning of the war, the Israeli media highlighted the interest of Netanyahu and his close team in collecting secret security and military materials and documents and burning others, which would convict the leaders of the military and security services and absolve Netanyahu.

During the coming period, Netanyahu will find more burden placed on his shoulders.

In addition to the criminal corruption cases that haunt him, he will have to face issues related to state security.

Perhaps the common denominator among these issues is the prime minister’s desire to strengthen himself in his position, even if the final burden is heavier than anything else the man has faced before, given the popularity that the heads of the security services still enjoy, which Netanyahu seeks to be his scapegoat.

In light of the internal situation he is suffering under, and the decline in major international support for the aggression against Gaza, the man doesn’t seem to have any options but to flee forward, by prolonging the war for as long as possible, which is what he alluded to in his statements and threats.

It also seems that he won’t be in a rush to accelerate the pace of the war, but rather will seek to keep the security nightmare going in Israel, ensuring that he remains in the prime minister’s chair, especially since the war will delay his testimony in the corruption files.

In a permanent state of emergency, the Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, will grant him a pardon, or he will enact a law in the Knesset under which he will grant himself this pardon.

As a result, Netanyahu, who threatened to resume the aggression against Gaza, despite his acquiescence and conclusion of an exchange deal, appears to face difficult days, especially in light of expectations of the possibility of extending the truce, pushed by many players on the international scene.

Also, pressure will increase on him from the families of soldiers who are still held captive by Hamas and other Palestinian factions in Gaza, who will intensify their demands for the release of their sons.

According to Maariv newspaper, a pessimistic estimate prevails in circles close to Netanyahu regarding the possibility of returning to a large ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip.

Estimates indicate, in closed sessions, that in parallel with the implementation of the prisoner exchange agreement and the truce, Hamas will make a great effort to prolong the duration of the truce and turn it into a permanent ceasefire, by inviting international media, especially from the United States and Europe to see Gaza during the truce, following the shocking scenes that will be reported by these media outlets, Israel will be subject to mounting international pressure demanding that it end the war, and the United States may join these calls, after which international contacts will begin in order to reach a political settlement regarding the status of the Gaza Strip.

Maariv newspaper added that, according to estimates by those close to Netanyahu, in such a scenario, the National Camp party led by Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two members of the war cabinet, will withdraw from the government.

In parallel, activists protesting against the plan to weaken the judiciary will begin organizing demonstrations calling on Netanyahu to resign.

Those close to the Prime Minister believe that what the latter can do in this case is to announce, before the demonstrations begin, his intention to resign and retire from political life at the end of a political process for a regional settlement.

Then, internal elections will be held in the Likud Party, and the winning candidate will form a government without announcing the date for the next general elections.

Maariv newspaper quoted the same sources as saying that there was talk about the possibility of Netanyahu stepping down, adding that the future of the deal with Hamas and the war in Gaza will affect the decision-making.

Netanyahu will decide according to the developments and the public-political situation that will arise.