Türkiye’s next move after Israel completely destroyed the T4 base in central Syria
Israel has intensified its airstrikes on sites inside Syria over the past week, amid reports of Turkish efforts to establish military bases on Syrian territory, a move interpreted as a warning to Ankara.
These strikes raised questions about whether Israel was trying to prevent Türkiye from implementing its plan, especially after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statements, in which he affirmed that his country wasn’t seeking to enter into a direct confrontation with Israel in Syria.
Israeli aircraft targeted Hama Military Airport and the T4 and Palmyra bases, causing extensive damage and potentially hindering any potential use of these sites by Turkish forces.
Is Ankara seeking to divert attention from its internal affairs?
In this context, Turkish academic Haider Çakmak, a specialist in international relations, noted that Türkiye may not see a real need to establish military bases inside Syria, suggesting that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is using this issue to direct public attention toward foreign policy, given the domestic challenges facing the country.
According to the Turkish expert, the possibility of a military escalation between Türkiye and Israel in Syria is slim, as Ankara’s move to go forward with the military base project following the intense Israeli bombardment of the proposed sites.
Both Turkiye and Israel, despite their differences, wouldn’t move toward a direct military confrontation in Syria, due to regional and international considerations.
However, Türkiye’s retreat from its military plan in Syria is contingent on two main factors:
First, Israel’s explicit refusal to establish Turkish bases in the region, which requires Ankara to avoid escalation with Tel Aviv.
Second, the Syrian government’s position, which considers any Turkish-Israeli confrontation on its territory a direct threat to its sovereignty and political future.
Thus, the new Syrian regime may refuse to cooperate with Ankara on establishing these bases, to avoid any political or battlefield losses.
Instead of establishing bases inside Syria, Türkiye could leverage its proximity to Syria to fulfill the required military role, especially given its repeated justification its objectives.
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s already established many sites in northern Syria and on the Syrian border can get the job done.
Thus, Ankara can rely on that option in order to strength its security and intelligence efforts, and even supporting cooperation with Damascus on this issue, without the need to establish bases in Syrian soil.
Türkiye has long expressed its desire to eliminate ISIS within Syrian territory, considering continued US support for the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) a direct threat to its national security, given the SDF’s links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is banned in Türkiye.
However, it appears that Türkiye’s recent moves in Syria haven’t gone unanswered.
Israel has publicly rejected these efforts, and the military response came in the form of a series of airstrikes targeting sites believed to be intended by Ankara to be converted into military bases.
Four informed sources reported that Turkish officials recently inspected three air bases inside Syria as part of preparations for a potential joint defense agreement.
These were directly targeted by Israel in recent days, with the most prominent strikes occurring on Wednesday evening.
These strikes targeted the T4 and Palmyra air bases in Homs province, as well as the main Hama airport.
Despite Ankara’s assurances to Washington that its increased military presence isn’t aimed at Israel, Tel Aviv appears to have intended to send a clear message, that any attempt to impose new Turkish influence on Syrian soil won’t go unanswered.
