The US intelligence: 5 scenarios that will shape the world by 2040
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a report that predicts the world in 2040, based on its assessment of the opinions of academics, analysts, and intelligence officials, to draw approximate scenarios that help US decision-makers to develop strategies and early notice of political, economic and social problems in the US and the world.
Every four years, since 1997, the office issues a report entitled “Global Trends”, in which it assesses the most important trends and political fluctuations that will strategically affect the United States.
The report is issued by the National Intelligence Council, also under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence oversees the multiple branches of US intelligence, known as the “intelligence community”, and the director is an advisor to the US president, who is appointed by himself and approved by the Senate.
Under Obama, she was deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and deputy national security adviser.
Report path
The report is divided into three main parts: “Structural Forces”, then “Emerging Dynamics”, and then ends by listing five projected scenarios for the shape of the world and the global order in 2040.
The “Structural Forces” section discusses four main areas: demography, environment, economics, and technology.
The authors of the report chose these areas precisely because they see them as important in shaping the future, and the globalization of influence, and because they are areas where there is information and evidence that makes it possible to predict their paths with greater confidence.
The second part deals with how these structural forces intersect together, and their interaction with other factors, to affect the “rising dynamics”, at three levels: 1- Societies and individuals, 2- States, 3- The global system, and the reliability of the analyzes in this part is further reduced, due to Diversity of possibilities and possible human choices in the future.
The third part of the report deals with several major fluctuations, and uses them to draw five scenarios for the world in 2040.
The authors of the report stress that these scenarios are not intended to be predictions; Rather, it is to broaden the horizon of possibilities, and to foresee the different contexts that may result from the overlap of structural forces and upward dynamics with major fluctuations.
Five essential attributes of change
Five main features of the future appear in the report, in its various sections:
Global Challenges
These challenges appear around the world, without direct human intervention in most of them, to put pressure on societies and cause shocks that may often be catastrophic, challenges such as: climate change, diseases, economic crises, and technology problems.
For example, the Covid-19 epidemic caused the largest global turmoil since World War II, and its health, economic, political and security consequences will continue for years.
The effects of climate change will often worsen food and water security crises, migration, health challenges, and the decline of biodiversity in the environment.
New technologies continue to evolve and emerge, and then disappear, with an increasing speed that disrupt patterns of jobs, societies, industrialization, the nature of power and authority, and the meaning of being human.
The pressures of global migration will continue on the countries from which people emigrate and the countries that receive them.
For example, in the year 2000 100 million lived in the countries to which they immigrated, and the number increased in 2020 to reach 270 million living in the countries of emigration.
These crises and challenges will intersect and follow in unpredictable ways, and will expand the concept and areas of “national security,” which won’t be limited to military defense against armies and traditional security risks.
Fragmentation
The growing state of global division makes it difficult to deal with the aforementioned challenges.
Paradoxically, the constant increase in communication and communication through technology, trade and the movement of people is the same that has caused the division and disintegration of countries and peoples.
“Connectivity”, meaning interconnectedness, will help humans to provide better standards of living, but it will create and increase tensions, in societies divided and differing over values and their basic goals, up to governments that will employ digital oppression to control peoples.
Disequilibrium
Global challenges and their effects that transcend countries and peoples, outweigh the ability of existing systems and structures today to address them, which opens the door to the third characteristic of global trends: imbalance.
It is intended to widen the gap between needs and challenges, and between the systems and institutions that deal with them and try to address them, such as the state and regional and international organizations.
The state of imbalance appears in the global system’s lack, with its institutions, alliances, rules and traditions, to prepare well to face the global problems facing peoples, and the closest example of that The Corona pandemic and the delay in the global response to it.
At the level of societies and countries, a persistent and growing gap is likely to emerge between what people want and what governments and companies can provide.
As a result of these imbalances, old systems and frameworks, including institutions, customs, traditions, and political systems of government are weakened and sometimes eroded, and human societies will be forced to debate new models for how to “build civilization”.
Contestation
Conflict within societies, states, and the global system is a direct result of the imbalance and the increase it causes in tension, divisions and competitions.
The internal politics in different countries will become volatile and contentious, and no region, ideology or regime will be excluded from this phenomenon.
Internationally, the geopolitical environment will become more competitive, with China challenging the United States and the Western-led world order, and nations racing to establish and exploit the new rules of the global order.
Adaptation
Any international player that seeks to outperform its rivals must have the ability to adapt, on issues such as climate change, demographics and technology.
In the case of climate change, adaptation may require the implementation of many steps, some of which are inexpensive, such as: restoring man-made forests, and others as complex, such as: building sea walls, or planning the transfer of large human groups from their areas of residence to other areas.
Technology will be an effective means of adaptation, as countries can increase economic opportunities by employing technologies such as artificial intelligence, which will differ from one country to another, and will enhance and highlight social inequality more.
The most effective countries will be those that can gain trust and internal consensus on the large collective steps that adaptation will require, and governments will need to draw on the experience, capabilities, and relationships of non-state actors, to complement government efforts.
The effects of “Covid-19” extending for the coming years
The report devotes a section at the outset to talking about the Coronavirus pandemic and its impact on global trends, either by accelerating it or slowing it down local and international.
The pandemic has accelerated global trends that already existed before it, increasing interest in health and the global health system, revealing and increasing social fissures in some countries, revealing the weakness of international cooperation in health crises, and the lack of readiness of existing institutions for future health challenges.
Some of the existing economic trends, such as diversification of global supply chains, rising domestic debt, and government intervention in the economy, have accelerated, and debt will exhaust developing economies.
Because of the great economic impact of the pandemic in low-income countries, it will lag economically more than the rest of the countries, and after complete control of the pandemic, families and families will often suffer from economic deterioration, especially those working in service or informal fields, or those who had to leave their work to take care of family members, The majority of those belonging to this category are women, and finally, the digital divide between countries, and within each country, has increased.
Attempts to contain the virus have led to the strengthening of “nationalism” again, with some countries closing in on themselves, sometimes blaming marginalized groups, and increasing rates of polarization and partisanship in several countries, due to disagreement about the best way to respond to the pandemic, and because governments are looking for a party to blame and blame It may spread the virus or slow the response.
The pandemic has exposed the state of weakness and political differences within international institutions.
The Coronavirus pandemic increased the crises of the ruling systems, with pressure, the real capabilities of states appeared, and they increased the decline in levels of confidence in them.
What will most likely continue thereafter?
The pandemic revealed the state of weakness and political differences within international institutions, such as the World Health Organization, to raise questions about the desire of countries or their ability to collectively cooperate in facing other global challenges, such as climate change, and although the Health Organization faced its most severe crises in nearly two decades, due to funding problems.
And to resist repressive regimes, the crisis may prompt states to support deep reforms in the organization, and to establish firm standards for information collection and sharing.
Finally, the pandemic has increased the role of non-governmental agencies, such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is supervised by billionaire Bill Gates and his ex-wife Melinda, and the report also refers to the role of private companies during the pandemic, due to their pivotal work in vaccine research.
And the mass production of medical supplies and personal protective equipment, and these parties will play a complementary future role for governments, at the local and international levels, in upcoming health crises, through early warning of diseases and viruses, and the development of treatments and vaccines.
As for the trends that have receded due to the pandemic, the most important of which is the work to combat poverty and reduce the gender gap, and because of the focus of resources on combating “Corona”, we have lost the progress achieved in combating other diseases, such as malaria, measles and polio.
- Structural forces
The shape of our lives in the coming decades will depend on demographic, environmental, economic and technological developments, but the intersection and acceleration of these trends will produce more difficult challenges that exhaust the ability of societies and countries to deal with and adapt to them.
Demography and human development
Slowing population growth and aging populations:
It is estimated that the world’s population will reach 9.2 billion by 2040, 1.4 billion more than the current number, with two-thirds of this increase coming from sub-Saharan Africa, which will often suffer severe pressure on infrastructure, education and health care.
Birth rates will decrease globally, and with it the average life expectancy will rise from 31 in 2021 to 35 in 2040.
Despite the slowdown in population growth in India, expectations indicate that it will surpass China’s population in 2027, to become the largest country in the world in terms of population.
Rising life expectancy… opportunity and burden
Because of lower birth rates and higher average lifespans, the proportion of people in the labor force will increase, women’s participation in the labor market will increase, and there will be greater social stability in older groups.
Some developed countries will witness a significant rise in life expectancy, with the population over 65 years representing about 25% of its population in 2040, compared to 15% in 2010, and the average life expectancy in Korea and Japan will reach 53, and in Europe to 47, and the number is expected to rise in Greece, Italy and Spain, as a result of which these countries will face reduced production rates, and a greater part of their national income will go to pensions and health care for the ever-expanding age group.
The countries of South Asia will achieve the highest percentage of the population engaged in the labor market, during the next two decades, and the percentage will reach 66%, followed by the countries of Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, with rates exceeding 65% in 2040.
These high rates provide great economic growth opportunities, which will be achieved if the workers in these countries are well trained and job opportunities become available.
These opportunities won’t be adequately exploited in the countries of South Asia, which are already facing challenges in creating job opportunities and adapting to technology and vocational training.
Countries with high proportions of young people will face social vulnerabilities often associated with this high proportion, and by 2040, a third of the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be under 15 years old, and the median age of the population will reach 22 years, which is much less than 30 years, the appropriate figure to reach high levels of development, and is shared by other countries such as Egypt, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the low life expectancy.
Urban expansion and changing people’s needs
Cities will play an important role in shaping the next life and its opportunities; The global proportion of urban population will increase from 56% in 2020, to about 66% in 2040, and most of this increase will take place in poor countries, in which the proportion of urban population will rise from one billion to 2.5 billion people in 2040, and about half of this growth will be in the countries of the South Asia, and a third of it is in sub-Saharan Africa, according to United Nations estimates cited in the report.
Usually, the movement of people to cities is a key driver of economic progress, but poor countries will have difficulty financing transportation, public services, and education infrastructure, and these countries, and the lower middle-income countries, face a risk of food shortages as people move to cities.
Environmental accidents will have a greater impact on humans in newly emerging cities, especially those on the coast or in areas prone to these environmental accidents.
According to the data of the Emergency Events database, the countries with the highest disaster-to-population ratio are middle-income countries in East and South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and low-income countries in southern and eastern Africa.
Challenges related to human development
After decades of progress in education, health and poverty alleviation, many countries will struggle to build on their gains or even preserve them; As the world witnessed the exit of about 1.2 billion people out of poverty, that is, their income became more than 3.2 dollars per day, and about 1.5 billion people joined the middle class (their income became more than 10 dollars / day).
Progress in health care, education and gender equality has contributed to a rise in average income, but maintaining this progress during the next two decades remains difficult in some countries, in light of slow and unbalanced economic growth, and because progress needs to overcome social obstacles, improve political stability, and increase investment in public services by government or private companies.
While middle-income countries have succeeded in achieving progress in these files, they are witnessing the escalation of more complex problems, such as pollution and non-communicable diseases, and in light of the rapid increase in the number of middle-income families during the past two decades, governments may struggle to provide the basic needs of this class, which has become more urban and connected and expansion.
In terms of women’s rights, in recent decades the world has witnessed great progress in health care, education, and legal rights provided to women.
Birth rates in developing countries have fallen to less than three births for every woman of childbearing age, and the average age at the birth of the first child has increased, allowing more Opportunities in education and work outside the home for women.
Sub-Saharan Africa, however, is far from these numbers.
Although the birth rate has fallen, it remains at 4.9 per woman, and is likely to remain high.
Newborn deaths have also fallen by about a third over the past two decades, with South Asian countries accounting for the largest share of that decline, and while developing countries have made rapid progress in closing the educational gap between males and females, the average number of years of schooling for females in Sub-Saharan Africa is less than the average number of years of schooling for girls. Male education increased by 19%, lower than the rest of the world.
The report says that “patriarchal societies” in Arab countries and South Asia are witnessing the largest gap in gender equality, in the home, at work and in health care, a gap that is believed to persist over the next two decades.
The subordination of women to men, regardless of educational level, remains part of family laws in many countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Globally, United Nations figures indicate that women occupy about 25% of legislative seats, about 25% of management positions in companies, and represent about 10% of CEOs of large companies.
In the education file, the percentage of adults who completed their basic education increased to 81% in 2020, and the percentages vary between developing countries, reaching 92% of adults in Latin America, East Asia and the Pacific and Europe, while remaining at 60% in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Providing education to the majority of the labor force, even if it is secondary education, is one of the factors in reaching a high middle income.
This majority percentage is achieved in Latin America, East Asia and the Pacific, and Europe, and reaches about 25% in sub-Saharan Africa.
It will be difficult for developing countries to increase the percentage, due to the high costs of providing this education, and because of the increasing population growth that is offset by the deficits of governments and the private sector.
The high proportion of middle-class people
In 2020, the proportion of the middle class in the world reached about 36%, and the available data for the period between 2000 and 2018 show that the countries in which the percentage increased the most are, in descending order: Russia, Turkey, Thailand, Brazil, China, Mexico, and Vietnam.
The percentage is expected to increase further during the next two decades, albeit at a slower rate.
The growth in per capita income during the past two decades is unlikely to be repeated, due to the decline in the rate of productivity growth.
East Asian countries, and to a lesser extent the countries of the South, have a better chance of achieving progress in per capita income, due to good education systems, stable social networks and good governance, to reduce the gap between them and developed countries in income, education and life expectancy.
Two-thirds of migrants come from middle-income countries, and half of them migrate to high-income countries.
Migration is on the rise
Migration rates will continue to rise, fueled by economic drivers and other circumstances such as conflict, repression, and natural disasters.
Two-thirds of migrants come from middle-income countries, and half of them migrate to high-income countries.
According to United Nations statistics, Europe has the largest presence of cross-border migrants, reaching about 70 million people in 2019, most of them coming from Eastern European countries, which witness the highest rate of entry for its residents in the labor market, while some other European countries suffer from high life expectancy.
Domestic and political turmoil will be a factor in the waves of migration; The United Nations data shows the displacement of about 80 million people, a third of whom migrated to countries other than their own, due to wars.
Responsiveness
These trends in demography and human development will put pressure on governments to increase their investments in public services and to find solutions to the issue of migration, and will cause unrest in some countries, and will put more pressure on already exhausted international institutions.
The pressure on governments increases due to the growth of the middle class, and the rise in immigration rates due to the increase in the life expectancy, but some countries may benefit from this increase, which achieves relative political stability, while authoritarian states remain at risk of instability.
Several Asian countries will rise due to their readiness to deal with many of these developments, especially human development and per capita national income, with the exception of China, which is now facing the effects of its policy that prevented the birth of more than one child, especially with the doubling of the population of adults over 65 years, reaching to 350 million in the next two decades.
The environment
In the next two decades, the physical effects of climate change, such as rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and severe weather, will appear, and its effects will affect all countries, while the largest proportion of the challenges and costs will fall on the shoulders of developed countries.
Countries will focus on reducing carbon emissions to achieve the provisions of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2016, which stipulates limiting the annual temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and this is not expected to be achieved, and it is likely that geoengineering research, which works to change the nature of the climate, will increase, and its temperature, and resources will be employed to cool the Earth, despite the potentially catastrophic effects of that.
Climate Change Impacts
The physical effects of climate change are getting stronger, and no country or region will be exempt from it, although developing countries will suffer more due to their limited ability to adapt to change.
One such effect is melting Arctic ice and sea level rise, and while sea levels have risen 8 to 9 inches since the end of the 19th century, over the next two decades it is expected to rise by 3 to 14 inches.
The world will witness more heat waves, and an expected rise in temperatures in the regions of central and eastern North America, central Europe, the Mediterranean Basin, western and central Asia, and southern Africa.
Natural disasters will worsen and dry areas will become drier, and wet areas more humid.
An increase in environmental degradation
In the next two decades, we will witness an increase in population, urban expansion, and poor resource management, and these factors together accelerate climate change and exacerbate its impact, and with the growth of coastal cities, the number of people threatened by increasing storms, and rising sea levels that contribute to coastal erosion, and thus will fuel migration and more crises.
The effects of climate change will be compounded by bad human behaviors, such as the exploitation of agricultural land and forests, which raises carbon emissions and destroys the land, the misuse of water and the increase in demand for it due to population growth and the scarcity or fluctuation of rain, and the pollution that fuels and nourishes climate change.
With regard to the water scarcity file, the report indicates that building dams in countries where rivers flow can cause wars and conflicts, citing the example of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will radically affect the access of water to Egypt and Sudan.
Human life will become more threatened due to the deterioration in the quality of water, air and food.
Human security declines
With all the effects of climate change mentioned above, the security risks to humans will multiply.
In 2018, 36% of cities faced severe environmental stress due to famine, floods and hurricanes.
Water and food crises will worsen, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, South Asia, and Australia will suffer due to their dependence on rain, and the northern countries of the world, Canada, Russia and northern Europe, may benefit from global warming that will extend the growing season of plants there.
Human life will become more threatened due to the decline in the quality of water, air and food, the development of water-borne diseases or insects, and in some cases the rate of spread of diseases affecting humans, animals and plants may change.
Biodiversity will decline more than at any time in human history; This threatens food and health security, and climate change will lead to the extinction of some animals and plants, or their migration to another environment that suits them.
The potential for increased migration is higher for environmental reasons, such as extreme heat or sea level rise, which may be caused by climate change, but most likely this migration will be internal.
Orientation towards mitigating risks: Several countries will try to intensify their efforts to reduce carbon emissions, especially developed countries, but the debate will remain between two camps: the first supports the rapid shift towards implementing the Paris Conference’s recommendation to limit the rise in global temperature to only 1.5 degrees Celsius, which requires measures Unprecedented in terms of production and energy consumption, the second camp believes that the trend towards reducing emissions should be carried out gradually, through the transition to new technology, while promoting economic growth at the same time.
Responsiveness
Climate change is expected to lead to more turmoil and political divisions, as we see in the growing protests led by hundreds of thousands of young people, and also the employment of nationalist and populist parties’ fears of economic impacts if environmental reform projects are initiated that could harm their immediate material interests.
And the dispute between countries will increase over transparency, environmental responsibility, and the measures taken to limit climate change.
For example, developing countries will require developed countries to allow the use of advanced energy technologies that reduce carbon emissions, and to provide financial support to support societies at risk or undergoing transformation.
With increasing competition for food, water, minerals and energy, famines will erupt, and countries like Russia, China and India will try to take advantage of the melting Arctic ice to search for resources and take advantage of shorter trade routes.
The armies will be affected by the expected material pressures, they will need to change the designs of their air and sea bases, and natural disasters will force them to use more of their resources for relief operations inside and outside their countries.
The global economy and geopolitical landscape will change dramatically with the global transformation of renewable energy, so that the oil countries will face a significant decline in their revenues, and their oil influence will fade.
Rare metals, which are used in batteries, engines and generators.
Economy
Economic trends are more than others, but they are less stable and change in them is very likely because the economy is linked to other trends such as technology and government policies.
Growing government debt
Government debt has increased in most countries of the world since the global economic crisis in 2008, and is likely to continue to rise over the next two decades, and the Corona pandemic contributed to the increase in debt.
The ratio of government debt to GDP increased in 90% of developed countries between 2008 and 2019.
Today, the debt ratio of emerging economies is similar to what it was during the wave of global debt crises in the mid-1980s and 1990s.
The G20 countries will suffer from the impact of the high life expectancy, which will put pressure on public spending in them, unless difficult measures are taken by reducing services granted to citizens or increasing taxes.
Debt reduction will be a greater challenge than the economic challenges that the world experienced after the global crisis of 2008.
These risks push some economies either to reduce public spending and risk increasing public anger, or to maintain public spending, which will exacerbate the debt crisis.
Therefore, countries will focus on spending their money to solve exclusively local problems, without dealing with common global problems.
Employment crises
With the use of artificial intelligence and automation (the transformation of work into automated processes with limited human intervention) in developed countries, due to the aging of the population, these countries will witness significant changes in the shape and size of jobs.
Although the World Economic Forum expects that new technology will create more jobs than will be lost, these jobs will need different skills than the old jobs; This will increase periods of unemployment for workers switching from old jobs to new ones, and will likely deepen the difference in wage distribution.
Developing economies will not be affected as much, because automation may spread more slowly, and young countries may be more resilient to automation if they provide adequate education and training to deal with new technology.
A more divided business environment
The world has witnessed only one international trade agreement since the establishment of the World Trade Organization, while bilateral and regional agreements between countries have increased in the past two decades, and this regional and bilateral trend seems to continue and prevail in the coming decades.
Countries will protect their domestic economies more and impose trade restrictions, and this won’t be limited to the trade war between the US and China.
The reasons for this trend range from the desire to limit the exit of jobs, when the economy is open, the least expensive operations will be transferred abroad, and with them their jobs will be transferred. Economies are better able to dominate.
Greater economic interdependence
This tendency to close down local economies won’t prevent an increase in global interdependence in many service areas, such as financial services, communications, information, tourism and others.
For example, the percentage of services trade in OECD countries (America, several European countries, Turkey, Japan, Finland, Mexico, Australia, etc…), to about 75% of the gross domestic product of these countries, and constitute 80% of the work available in them, and despite that, the volume of the services sector continues to represent a third of global trade, which means that there are better growth opportunities.
New Manufacturing Techniques Changing Trade
Digital manufacturing and 3D printing technologies may reduce the leadership and commercial importance of countries with low labor costs, and this may accelerate the reconfiguration of supply chains, to rely less on external parties such as China and low labor countries.
E-commerce represented about 30% of global GDP in 2018, which is likely to increase in the next two decades.
Online selling platforms support global trade
New technology has created new ways of distribution, enabling small and medium-sized enterprises to easily enter new markets, networking customers and companies in different countries, and facilitating the growth of local trade and small and medium-sized enterprises.
E-commerce represented about 30% of the global GDP in 2018, which is likely to increase in the next two decades, due to the facilitation of global access to the Internet and the spread of smart phones, and major platforms such as “Amazon” and “Ali Baba” will acquire the largest share of these transactions. commercial.
Giant companies and the sustainability of economic globalization
Giant and international companies are likely to grow and expand, to enhance and extend economic globalization in the next two decades, especially with the continued existence of economic factors that support their rise, such as high fixed costs, low marginal costs, network and platform effects, and machine learning.
The market dominance of these companies is likely to increase with the rising importance of new technologies, such as big data and machine learning, as value-creating factors in the next two decades.
The economies hosting these companies will try to capture part of the value they create, while the power of these companies will be in purely non-economic spaces, such as controlling data and information flows, and this will incentivize governments to regulate the work of these companies or even fragment their power.
Continuing expansion of international government-owned companies
Government-owned international companies will continue to play an active role in global trade, and most of these companies are owned by governments such as China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some European countries. Countries will have to outpace and outperform other companies, so companies will pressure their governments to step in.
The global economy continues to tilt towards Asia
Global economic activity has tended towards Asia in the last 40 years, and this trend is expected to continue until at least 2030, and possibly until 2040, and if it continues, the developing country in Asia is expected to contribute 35% of global GDP, with China and India alone contributing by 29%.
And if there is faster economic growth, the largest Asian countries in population will have the opportunity to join the major economies, such as India, which may become among the three largest economies in the world, and Indonesia, which may become among the 10 largest economies.
Living conditions are lower than in developed countries.
Responsiveness
These economic trends will put pressure on governments and allow new players to influence the economy, including private companies and countries with less open economies.
It is likely that higher government debt and higher debt servicing, which is the amount paid for loans, including interest and commissions, will make countries less able and interested in addressing international challenges, including public health and climate change, and is likely to result in less commitment to reduce Emissions, and the retreat from the pledges of developed countries to support adaptation in developing countries, and due to economic restrictions, the governments of developing countries will have less work to address the problems of climate change.
With the increase in the number of “major economies” that will remain in the classification of “developing countries”, it is likely that these countries will be required to have a greater influence on the policies of international economic organizations, in order to favor them more, which will conflict with the interests of developed countries, and because of these tensions, organizations may be established parallel.
technology
Technology presents a dilemma for the world: As it advances, it will provide solutions to many of the problems discussed in the report, but it will reinforce others.
Technology trends
The state of technology is affected by several trends, and although new technology won’t appear uniformly or predictably, it will stem from some common factors and dynamics.
The convergence of different sciences enhances technical innovation.
This is how smartphones came out, based on advances in various fields such as electronics, batteries, and communications, and the same will happen by 2040, when artificial intelligence research, high-speed communications and biotechnology meet, which will grow further through our understanding of social and behavioral sciences.
To enable us to create new achievements and applications that serve users more.
Competition for technological dominance will intensify, and countries will seek to create alternatives to the American “Silicon Valley”, and this may increase the chances of applications emerging from unexpected regions.
Countries will strive to accumulate the resources that help them excel, in terms of human skills, foundational knowledge, and supply chains, and most likely, countries that focus on these resources will be the technology leaders in 2040.
And because the period of use of modern technologies decreases with the acceleration of their development, developing countries will face the risk of investing in technologies that may not be used for long, which threatens them to be technically behind other countries.
Technology driving change
The report focuses on three technology areas that could significantly change the shape of the future: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and materials and manufacturing.
In the field of artificial intelligence, this technology will create new jobs and eliminate others, causing significant social and economic changes, and companies and countries will need to focus on educating and retraining the workforce.
Data will be of great importance, which will give preference to countries, companies and institutions that invest in data collection, classification, storage and financial benefit.
Privacy theories will continue to evolve, in light of the need for individuals to share personal information, especially to obtain services, while repressive governments will exploit this need to monitor or control their citizens, and artificial intelligence will play a role in war systems, by enhancing the performance of weapons, defenses, and security systems.
In the field of industries and materials, by 2040 the production process of almost everything will change with the progress in the production of what the report calls “new materials”, and this means the production of materials of high quality and qualities that were not available before that allow the use of these materials in a variety and different forms, and these materials will reduce the cost of manufacturing with higher quality, and will change the work of supply chains.
3D printing technology will increase the manufacturing capabilities of individuals and small businesses, due to its ability to manufacture with a variety of materials in smaller facilities and with little expertise. Factories will become more adaptable, scalable as needed, with greater capacity for design and assembly.
In biotechnology, industrial progress will spur innovation in health, agriculture, industry and cognitive science, and by 2040, we will be better able to reduce disease and hunger, rely on petrochemicals, and change the way we interact with the environment.
It is expected that many different applications of biotechnology will emerge, with several potential benefits and risks, including: specialized treatment based on artificial intelligence and genetic research, 3D bio-printing, the use of genetic research in embryo modification, machine use in human cognition, and massive environmental intervention to create new environments.
Or altering and repairing faulty environments, and using DNA to encode and store data.
This excessive connection and contact will bring about rapid social changes, including the potential for privacy and “anonymity” to disappear.
The report lists some expected developments in the field of space as well, and expects an increase in countries involved in space exploration, an increase in the role of commercial entities in this field, the rise of China to become a space power that competes with the United States, the use of space to support military and government needs, the transformation of space activities to become routine, and the use of intelligence artificial in space.
The report predicts that the world in 2040 will be a “hyperconnected” world; The number of devices connected to the Internet of things will reach about 64 billion devices in 2025, and the fifth-generation networks allow the connection of about one million devices per square kilometer.
This hyper-connectivity and connectivity will bring about rapid social changes, including the potential for privacy and “anonymity” to disappear, either by choice or government-mandated, and will also expose more individuals, institutions and governments to the risk of cyber-attacks.
Greater consequences of technological development: Technological development will have several consequences, the first of which is rapid work to solve major problems, such as our rapid access to a vaccine for the Covid-19 epidemic, and therefore technology can contribute to solving challenges such as climate change.
Technology will become a geopolitical force, promoting either cooperation or competition in different spaces between international powers.
The speed with which technology advances may outpace regulation and associated ethical legislation, which may cause social anxiety or political disagreements.
The relationship of companies and governments will become more complicated, because their interests are not always consistent, and the national interests of countries may conflict with the desire of companies to expand and increase profits.
The report points to other risks that technological progress may cause, such as artificial intelligence out of control, synthetic epidemics, nanotechnology weapons, or nuclear wars.
Such risks are difficult to predict, and it is expensive to prepare for them, but knowing them and working on mitigation strategies from her gravity helps to cope with her shocks.
- Rising dynamics
The aforementioned trends pave the way for the future, but what happens over the next twenty years depends on choices made at three levels: society, the state, and the world.
Society: divided, informed and disappointed
Large segments of the world’s population feel anxious, uncertain about the future and mistrust of governments, seeing them as either corrupt or incompetent.
Many people tend to groups similar to them ethnically, religiously, or culturally, or to groups that believe in the same interests and issues, and they are prominent groups that struggle with each other with different visions and narratives for the goals and beliefs of societies.
These transnational identities, combined with a revival of entrenched loyalties and an information-segregated environment, create and expose fissures within states to undermine civic nationalism and increase volatility.
Societies in all regions of the world have the tools and capabilities to lead campaigns for social and political change, and to demand resources, services and recognition from their governments.
Countries: Tensions, turmoil and transformations
Governments in all regions are facing increasing pressures due to economic constraints and a combination of demographic, environmental and other challenges.
At the same time, societies will demand more and are better able to push their priorities and pressure to achieve the goals of each society, even if it is internally divided.
Governments and societies are likely to face ongoing tensions, due to the differing hopes of the people from what governments present, and this growing gap predicts more political volatility, the threat to democracy, and the expansion of the roles of “alternative governance” sources.
This popular anger, if accompanied by a crisis that increases it and inspiring leadership, can, cause major changes in the way of governance.
The report predicts that some regional powers will continue to rise, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Iran, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria and Australia.
Global order: more competitive, opaque and prone to conflict
Over the next two decades, the forces within the global system will evolve to include a larger set of sources and characteristics, with the expansion of the power of technology, networks, and information, adding to the more traditional forces, military, economic, and cultural soft power.
It is likely that no single state will control all areas and areas of power, which will allow other international actors to pursue their interests.
The United States and China will have the greatest influence on global dynamics, and may support competing visions of the world order and regimes that reflect their basic interests and ideologies.
This rivalry will affect most areas, putting pressure on alliances, international organizations and norms and rules of the international system, or sometimes reshaping them.
This competitive environment predicts potential international conflicts, due to technological progress, the broadening of the objectives and new fronts of conflict, the diversity of international actors, the difficulty of achieving military deterrence equations, and the weakness or absence of agreed treaties and norms.
The report predicts the rise of China to become a global power, and it will look to impose control on Asia and increase its global influence, and it is likely that China will continue to strengthen its economic integration with the countries of the Middle East and the Indian Ocean region.
It is possible that Russia will continue to confuse the world order, and will try to widen the divisions in the West, and consolidate its relations with the countries of Africa, the Middle East and others.
With the departure of Putin, in 2024 or after that, it may be forced to retreat geopolitically.
As for Japan, Britain and the European Union countries will maintain their political and economic power.
India is likely to become a global power due to its geography, strategy and growing economic, technological and military power, but it will still suffer from some internal social and environmental problems that need to be resolved before it plays a strong external role.
The report predicts that some Middle Eastern powers will continue to rise, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Iran, and other regional countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria and Australia, with the possibility of these countries changing in the next two decades, and these countries will try not to enter into clashes with global powers, but they will seek at the time itself to build alliances and regional blocs to be able to influence some issues, and it will be more aggressive in its regional conflicts.
In terms of armed groups, the report expects jihadist movements to remain the biggest transnational threat, and predicts the possibility of the emergence of left and right groups, advocating a variety of issues, from racism to preserving the environment to combating the expansion of government intervention.
Iran and Hezbollah will likely continue to entrench the so-called “axis of resistance,” with the potential for increased threats against American, Israeli, Saudi and other targets in the Middle East.
- The Five Scenarios of the World in 2040
The report presents five scenarios that gather all the details we discussed in one scene, in an attempt to clarify their possible consequences and impact on the shape of the world.
Three of the five scenarios depict the world led by either the United States or China, or competition between them, and the remaining two scenarios predict more radical changes, resulting from a severe global division.
The first scenario: the rise of democracies
In 2020, the world realized the importance of international cooperation in scientific research, innovation, and technological progress in facing global challenges, especially with the successful development and distribution of a Covid-19 vaccine.
The world is witnessing the rise of open democracies led by the United States and its allies, and the shape of the global economy is changing as a result of technological progress sponsored by a partnership between governments, institutions and private companies, raising wages and improving the quality of life for millions around the world.
As a result of the above, countries will be able to respond better to global challenges, social divisions will be reduced, and confidence in democratic institutions will be renewed due to ongoing initiatives to eradicate corruption and enhance transparency and accountability.
The technological development achieved by democracies will contribute to making some countries adopt more transparent democracies.
The US leadership will demonstrate its centrality in the coordination processes between countries to solve global problems, and the recovery of the European Union and Britain will contribute to this system, due to economic growth and technological progress.
The technological development achieved by democracies will contribute to making some populous countries adopt more transparent democracies, including India, Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria.
On the contrary, innovation will decline in Russia and China, after the most prominent Chinese scientists and entrepreneurs’ resort to the European Union and the US, due to mass surveillance and increasing social restrictions, and the authoritarian regime in the two countries will weaken due to increased repression, disruption of economic growth and increasing demographic pressures, and in light of the weakness of the two systems, they become more aggressive towards their neighbors.
Russia will threaten to intervene to protect ethnic Russians in ex-Soviet countries that are not members of NATO, and this will be a last and desperate attempt to divert attention from Moscow’s internal problems, while China will move with escalatory steps in the South China Sea, and both countries will invest in disinformation technology and asymmetric weapons of war, to counter US military supremacy, avoiding the cost of direct violence.
Scenario Two: A Lost World
Many developed and emerging countries will fail to fully recover from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, which will prolong its life due to the slow distribution of vaccines, and people’s frustration will increase in many countries.
Despite this, the divided opposition movements will not be able to agree on clear demands and goals.
We live in a world that is lost and directionless, does not follow international rules in its behavior, in which international cooperation is diminished, technology fails to provide solutions, and OECD countries suffer from slowing economic growth, increasing social divisions, and political paralysis.
China will take advantage of the problems of the West to expand its influence, especially in Asia.
Countries such as Japan and Korea are developing their own independent military modernization programs and will develop nuclear weapons to counter North Korea and China, and they are concerned about whether they can really rely on their American ally.
China will take advantage of the problems of the West to expand its influence, especially in Asia, but it lacks the desire and military capacity that makes it led the world, and with the stagnation of many developing economies, some of them will turn to China, and many of them will suffer from state failure, especially in the Middle East and Africa.
China may be able to better adapt to the environmental and social problems that other countries suffer from, due to the strength of social cohesion, the more flexible handling of the central authority in Beijing, and the regime’s ability to provide jobs, goods and services, while at the same time being able to suppress conflicting political voices, and by 2035, China will become calmer, especially after forcing the Taiwan government to start talks on its annexation of China.
Third scenario: coexistence and competition
After a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, and after the protracted trade war between the US and China, economic demand becomes constrained and general frustration spreads by the end of the 1920s, the revived OECD countries are taking new economic measures to stimulate growth.
The seven countries meet in Canada in 2031, to approve plans to stimulate the economy, liberalize trade and investment, improve tax systems, and ease regulations, supported by a “post-Putin Russia” that suffered in the years of low oil prices, and with-it emerging economies such as Brazil and India.
But China is not open to this economic model, and will stick to its closed and state-controlled system, but it will prioritize economic growth and trade.
China and the United States will work to strengthen their economic relations, but they will compete for political influence and promotion of their regimes, and for hegemony and technological and strategic supremacy, and while the risk of conflict decreases due to economic interdependence between the two countries, geopolitical competition will remain the most important security challenge.
In light of competition between countries for markets and resources, and following one of the American or Chinese models, social division decreases and people turn around their governments.
Developed countries will become more resilient to climate change, but developing countries will have the largest share of the increasing disasters, representing a second-class security challenge.
Fourth scenario: separate silos
At the beginning of the thirties, countries will tend to increase barriers and impose trade restrictions between them, to protect their population and resources and to serve the local industry, in light of the decline in jobs caused in part by globalization, intense trade disputes, and cross-border “terrorist” and health threats.
Some developing countries will suffer in the midst of these blocs, and will be at risk of becoming failed states.
In 2040, the world will be divided into multiple economic and security blocs, varying in size and strength, centered around China, Russia, the European Union, the US and some regional powers such as India, and focusing on self-sufficiency, flexibility and military defense.
Some developing countries will suffer in the midst of these blocs, and will be at risk of becoming failed states, but countries with large domestic markets, or neighboring countries with large countries, will succeed in reorienting their economies.
Closure and building of barriers extend to the Internet; The United States and a few of its allies will remain the only countries to maintain the open form of the Internet, and the remaining countries will operate behind firewalls that control it.
Economic stagnation will cause widespread insecurity in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, and promote the return of sub-ethnic and religious identities, which will exhaust societies, divide states, and sow chaos.
Poor countries will become less stable, especially with no major countries or the United Nations interested in restoring order, and conflicts will become persistent in them, and then it will exacerbate the situation of other problems.
Fleeing migrants will increase poverty, weak governments, and deteriorating environmental conditions, but their hopes will be dashed because safe countries prevent most types of migration.
The fifth scenario: tragedies and mobilization
In this scenario, the world will lead in 2040 a global coalition led by the European Union and China, and cooperate with non-governmental organizations and international institutions for life, to make wide-ranging changes to confront climate change, poverty and resource depletion, after a food disaster caused by climate, after the destruction of fisheries and the decline of cereal crops; This caused food prices to rise and ended with a global famine.
The international initiative comes from the European Union, after the green parties succeeded in winning elections in several European countries between 2034 and 2036.
Younger generations who have lived through the COVID-19 pandemic will reach out across borders, turning to NGOs and civil society instead of governments whose people will see them disappointed.
The international initiative comes from the European Union, after the success of the green parties in winning elections in several European countries between 2034 and 2036, to launch a campaign within the United Nations to significantly expand relief programs, and set a new date for achieving the United Nations sustainable development goals set in 2050.
China will announce its support for the European Union because it has been severely affected by the famine, while countries such as America and Australia are slowly catching up as environmental parties gain greater political power.
This European initiative, in cooperation with developed countries focused on the transnational challenges of the century, will create a new global organization called the Human Security Council, whose membership will allow states and non-state actors, and whose membership requires a firm commitment to actions to improve food, health and environmental security, even mandated by wealthy states and groups.
Non-compliant members of the organization will be fired, facing popular anti-boycott movements similar to those against apartheid in South Africa, and by 2038 global behavior towards environment and human security will be different after increasing recognition of the failure of previous measures.
But some countries will remain opposed to these measures, such as Russia and some OPEC countries, which they see as a threat to their traditional values, and countries with strong interests in the energy sector, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Gulf states, will face political movements against the regime and threaten deep social and political conflicts.
