The Turkish President is preparing for four difficult years during Biden’s tenure

As the world begins to prepare for Joe Biden’s move to the White House, a few leaders, such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are moving quickly because the evidence indicates that it is expected that dealing with the situation in The next four years are more difficult than the previous one.

Bloomberg News reported in a report on what Turkey expects in the future in the Biden era that the Turkish president and his advisors are fully aware of the personality of the former US vice president, but this is not necessarily an advantage given the ready-made US sanctions against Turkey and has prevented them from being imposed so far only by Ronald Trump.

By the time Biden left office in 2017, he had presided over a breakdown in relations with Turkey from close partnership to mutual distrust.

Biden described in an interview with “The New York Times:” published in January, Erdogan as a “tyrannical person,” and said that the United States should support the opponents of his ouster in the ballot box.

“He must pay the price.

The price could be high, as in addition to the threat of sanctions, heavy penalties could be imposed on a state Turkish bank. 

There are also unresolved differences over the status of Kurdish fighters in Syria, and Turkish naval demands in the Mediterranean and other areas with regard to gas and oil exploration.

Bloomberg adds that concern about what might happen next could help explain the Turkish leader’s decision to congratulate Biden and accept his victory, in contrast to other powerful leaders who have benefited from Trump’s term, such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro or Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ahead of the G20 virtual video summit last Saturday and Sunday, Erdogan spoke by phone with Saudi Host King Salman.

Both countries angered the foreign policy establishment in Washington, but they were protected by Trump.

And in a speech last Saturday (November 21), Erdogan rejected the notion that Turkey’s recent friendship with Russia was “an alternative to our long-established relations with America”. 

The next day, he called for closer cooperation with Europe, which has been at odds with him for several months.

For four years, Damian Murphy, Turkey advisor to the prominent Democratic member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, said Erdogan has been able to do what he likes for four years “mainly because he had a friend in the White House”.

“It is certain that all of this will change from the point of view of the United States, when you have an administration that takes a more responsible approach towards the region and towards Erdogan”.

Erdogan appears to be preparing for the worst. 

Last Thursday (the nineteenth of this month), the Turkish parliament approved legislation to return to Turkey the Turkish energy and mining companies that were established abroad, and an official in the Turkish Energy Ministry described this step as a precaution in anticipation of possible sanctions.

Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russian-made S-400 air defense systems in 2019 is subject to sanctions adopted by the US Congress.

John Bolton, the former US National Security Adviser, said Trump “does not want to punish Turkey and that is quite clear”. 

He added that he accepts Erdogan’s argument that former US President Barack Obama prevented Turkey from buying Patriot missiles, so he had no choice but to buy the S-400, and this is nonsense.

Biden, who was Vice President Obama at the time of the Patriot talks, is unlikely to embrace this line.

An amendment working its way through Congress would in any case force the president to choose at least five sanctions to impose on Turkey from a list of 12.

The options range from symbolism to excluding sanctioned entities from all financial transactions under US jurisdiction, paralyzing these entities.

Then there is a lawsuit against Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank, which last year was charged with alleged fraud and money laundering of up to $ 20 billion aimed at helping Iran evade US sanctions. 

In June, Trump forced the chief prosecutor in the case to resign.

Halkbank denied these accusations, and the case will go to court next March, that is, two months after Biden’s inauguration.

Bloomberg reported that Turkish officials say they see Syria as the most important potential challenge to Biden, who during the election campaign said he would prefer to keep U.S. special forces there. 

Trump withdrew some of them in 2019 and made way for Turkish forces to clear the border areas of Kurdish fighters it considers terrorists, but who are allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS).

There is no clear solution to some of the US-Turkish differences on the horizon, and there may be limits to the extent to which Erdogan can make concessions, even if he wants to take this step.

The ruling Justice and Development Party government in Turkey depends on a coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party, who is likely to resist making any concessions to the United States.

“We don’t support Biden and we don’t like Trump,” said Dolt Bahçeli, the leader of the MHP, in a recent speech, adding, “We are waiting ready – in a state of caution and suspicion”.