The Times: September will be a crucial month in Ukraine
The Times posted an analysis by Michael Clarke, entitled: “Why September is the crucial month in Ukraine”.
Clarke wrote that winter is coming and with it changes in the dynamics of the war for the Russians and Ukrainians, as well as for the Western countries that support Kyiv.
He notes that Ukraine launched its long-awaited counter-offensive last week, leaving the Kremlin clinging to cooler weather that will slow the attackers.
He goes on to say that Russia is on the defensive to ensure that it doesn’t lose the only important city it controls, Kherson, in the south and says it is not entirely sure of its ability to hold all the territory it recently captured in Donbas either.
If Putin wants a second major attack to put the process back on track, he needs winter to prepare for it.
Clarke considers that the victory in Kherson before winter is a military deadline for Ukraine precisely because it is a political deadline in Kyiv’s relations with the West.
Without increased Western military support, Ukraine cannot progress from “losing slowly everywhere” to “winning somewhere”.
Without Western financial support approaching $9 billion a month, the Ukrainian government simply cannot continue to operate while also fighting its war for survival.
The writer notes that the United States provides more than 70% of all military aid to Ukraine, but European unity is necessary to maintain sanctions and withdraw investment in the Russian economy.
He also says that Europe faces a bleak winter: energy at sky-high prices, industrial outages that reduce production, economic stagnation and possibly social and industrial unrest as a result.
He adds that Putin wishes to divide Europe and break the sanctions regime in several countries because of the pressure in the energy sector that Russia can place on Europe, especially Germany and Italy, and the concessions that Russia can make to its friends and hesitant states such as Hungary, Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia.
Clarke considers that this winter is the best opportunity.
As Europe will buy ever-decreasing amounts of Russian energy from next year.
But he says Western leaders face a struggle over Europe’s security.
Putin justifies his invasion by saying that it is “related to the Nazis in Ukraine, NATO expansion, gay subversion of Russian culture, and correcting the mistakes of the end of the Cold War” as Clarke considers Putin to be saying anything but the truth.
He adds that not only Putin, but “the Russian establishment, the Kremlin, the Duma, much of the political community, and large sections of public opinion, now seem to believe in Russia’s historic right to restore its European empire”.
Clarke concluded that the current conflict may turn into an intermittent conflict between Moscow and Kiev for many years.
He points out that it is the second war between Russia and Ukraine since 2014.
He says there will likely be a shaky ceasefire sometime before there is a third conflict, and so forth.
