The Telegraph: Putin is on the verge of losing Crimea
In October, the British Armed Forces Secretary, James Hebby, considered that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had been effectively neutralized due to the heavy losses it suffered as a result of drone and missile attacks.
Although Russian President Putin has previously described Crimea as a “non-sinkable aircraft carrier,” repeated strikes on Sevastopol and the crisis of several ships fleeing to Russia’s port of Novorossiysk since 2014 have made the situation on the ground extremely complicated.
The use of the term “defeat” may be premature, as grain trade and commercial activities in Ukrainian ports still have some time to recover.
Some observers argue that as long as the Black Sea Fleet possesses Kalibr missiles, describing it as defeated is still debated.
Russia’s ability to monitor and target ships in the western Black Sea has also declined, limiting the threat of Kalibr missiles to commercial ships traveling between Odessa and Roman waters.
In another development, Crimea itself is under increasing pressure, as it is under attack by ATACMS ballistic missiles provided by the United States, posing a threat to all areas of Russian military operations.
Important bridges such as the Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia and Crimea, are one of the main targets that Ukraine seeks to hit, as they are a vital artery for logistical supplies supporting Russian forces.
The newspaper pointed out that the Ukrainians have already managed to hit the Kerch Bridge twice, in October 2022 and July 2023, and despite ongoing reform efforts, things aren’t yet back to normal.
In response, Russia has built a new railway line in the region, but these lines remain within range of Ukrainian ATACMS missiles, meaning the possibility of cutting Russian supply lines remains.
Meanwhile, British intelligence continues to monitor the situation, noting that Russia has reinstalled destroyed naval barges in the Kerch Strait, reflecting growing Russian concern about those bridges.
Although railways may be easier to repair than bridges, supply problems in Crimea could quickly worsen, reducing Russia’s ability to use it as an effective military base.
Some are beginning to wonder about the possibility of Ukraine launching an amphibious landing in Crimea, to avoid facing strong Russian defenses on the current front.
Although this scenario may seem far-fetched given Ukraine’s lack of naval resources, the situation on the ground could leave Russian forces in Crimea vulnerable to defeat.
Finally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces questions about how to exploit the growing pressure on Crimea and determine next steps in light of the growing strangulation and isolation facing the region.
