National Interest: Can the United States handle two wars at once?

Does the United States need to enhance its military capabilities to counter more than one major war at a time?

This question was posed by writer Michael O’Hanlon in the National Interest.

According to the Pentagon’s official doctrine, the United States isn’t currently equipped to fight more than one major war at a time.

An axis involving Russia, North Korea, Iran and China could be contemplated, raising concerns about the possibility of conflict with one of these countries, while another could exploit the situation to launch an attack on the United States.

During the Cold War, the United States aimed to be able to fight a major war with its NATO allies against the Soviet bloc in Europe, as well as another conflict in other regions such as Korea or Vietnam.

At the time, the US military was 60% larger than its now.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the United States reduced its armed forces but continued to plan for the ability to fight two wars at the same time, however, this included confronting less powerful adversaries such as Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and possibly Syria.

On the ground, the United States has fought two overlapping wars for several years in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Although they differed from the planned model scenarios, these wars were long-term and medium-sized, unlike short and large wars such as Desert Storm in 1991.

As a result, US efforts have focused on the height of the wars, focusing on Iraq under President George W. Bush and Afghanistan during President Obama’s first term.

Since 2015, things have changed again, planners at the Pentagon, led by Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford, have begun to adopt the “4+1” threat framework that includes Russia and China along with Iran and North Korea as the main threats.

Hence, the Pentagon, under the leadership of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis during the Trump administration, prioritized Russia and China, while the Biden administration continued to pursue a similar national defense strategy.

According to official doctrine, the US military must be able to carry out the following tasks at the same time: working with allies to fight and defeat China or Russia (but not both at the same time) in conflicts centered around the Western Pacific or Eastern Europe.

Defend the American homeland and maintain nuclear deterrence.

Deter North Korea and Iran without precise details on how.

Continuing to fight extremist organizations across borders as part of the war on terror, effectively means that it is only one war.

Before we head for a big build-up in defense, we must consider some of the challenges.

Although the US defense budget of about $900 billion exceeds the peak spending of the Cold War and three times that of China and six times that of Russia, the large annual federal deficit poses a major challenge.

In addition, the army has difficulty recruiting and filling the required strength of the forces, and other services have difficulties in achieving their objectives.

The Trump and Biden administrations are focused on improving the quality of the armed forces rather than increasing their size.

Defense plans focus on enhancing lethal military capabilities, survival, sustainability, flexibility, and adaptability to rapid technological changes.

It’s important to strengthen deterrence against simultaneous aggression from any potential adversary – the United States must ensure that it has sufficient core capabilities to counter any of the four potential adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea).

In cooperation with the Allies, any rapid and successful aggression can be prevented even with most forces focused on one major war.

Planning multiple wars not only helps to counter wars more effectively, but also contributes to the creation of a strategic reserve of munitions and weapons.

By mass-producing and deploying munitions in major overseas theaters, the United States can hedge against any war that is protracted or requires a larger quantity of weapons than expected.

Among the additional capabilities that may be required to support this strategy, it can be mentioned: Two squadrons of “fifth-generation” fighter jets to confront North Korea.

Unmanned submarines in the western Pacific are equipped with anti-ship missiles to help Taiwan.

Vertical lift aircraft stationed in Okinawa to support the defense of Taiwan.

Middle East missile defense systems to counter Iranian threats.

A brigade of US ground forces supported by fighter jets and attack helicopters in the Baltic states to deter Russia.