The National Interest: Will Israel endure a long war of attrition?

Hours before the polls closed in the United States on November 5, Netanyahu dismissed the Defense Minister Yoav Galant.

Galant had become a familiar face throughout the war on Hamas.

In the wake of the Hamas massacre on October 7, Galant had a firm hand in the reins of military operations.

Netanyahu said he dismissed Galant because trust between them had eroded.

They had different priorities for the war effort and different visions for Israeli strategy.

Galant favored a hostage deal and pushed the Day After Gaza plan, and also wanted to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have historically been exempt from the military in Israel.

That put him at odds with other members of Netanyahu’s coalition government.

With Galant’s departure, there will be a shake-up in the Israeli political landscape.

Galant brought decades of experience as a soldier and officer to the job.

He is likely to be replaced by a politician rather than a former general, putting the war effort more firmly in Netanyahu’s hands (Galant was replaced by Israel Katz, who was the foreign minister).

During the first months of the Gaza war, Israel had a war cabinet that included two former generals (Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot), both of whom left the cabinet in June.

Netanyahu’s decision comes as Trump celebrates his election victory.

That means the November-January period will be a window of opportunity for Israel to conduct its operations.

Similarly, there may be room for light from the Biden administration as it moves into the lame duck era.

The Middle East is boiling, with Iran threatening more direct attacks on Israel.

Hezbollah has a new leader, Naim Qassem, who has spoken of the US election as not changing Hezbollah’s war on Israel.

Israel launched a ground operation against Hezbollah in October, and Hezbollah continued to fire rockets into central Israel on November 6, as if to show that the US election won’t deter its attacks.

Still, Trump’s remarks will be watched closely in the region, and they are likely to influence the next phase of the war.

This is evident because regional leaders have been quick to reach out to the president-elect.

Netanyahu spoke to Trump, as did the Saudi crown prince, with Riyadh expects the incoming administration to strengthen ties.

But the Saudis have criticized Israel’s war in Gaza and have publicly expressed their desire for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

They are likely to know, however, that Iran supported Hamas’s October 7 attack in order to undermine the Abraham Accords, the normalization deal that Trump helped broker between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

Meanwhile, the Israeli war effort will be on two fronts.

The IDF recently helped facilitate a polio vaccination campaign in Gaza.

In addition, the IDF is concluding a month-long operation in Jabaliya in northern Gaza.

Jabaliya is a large neighborhood north and northeast of Gaza City where Hamas maintains a presence.

The IDF fought Hamas in Jabaliya twice during the year-long conflict, but never succeeded in clearing it of fighters.

In October, the IDF launched another offensive, and after a month of fighting, it defeated Hamas.

Still, the slow-motion operation illustrated how difficult it is to uproot Hamas.

Israeli soldiers are using drones and M113 unmanned aerial vehicles in operations to try to clear the fighters, but it takes time, and the neighborhood is a pile of destroyed, multi-story buildings.

The war is slow going in Gaza and Lebanon, the IDF has deployed four divisions and has spent more than a month fighting Hezbollah in a string of border villages less than a mile from the Israeli border.

This is a slow process because Hezbollah has stockpiled munitions and bunkers.

The IDF’s 8th Brigade, for example, has killed dozens of fighters in recent operations in Lebanon.

On November 6, the IDF said, “The forces seized numerous weapons, including Kornet missiles, hand grenades and explosive devices hidden in civilian homes and underground infrastructure, however, Hezbollah is relentless in its attacks, firing more than 120 rockets into Israel on November 6.

Israel needs to decide how to conduct a multi-front war in the coming months as the new US administration prepares to take office.

That means considering the next phase of operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

Can Hamas or Hezbollah be decisively defeated now that they have been crushed by ground operations?

Both groups have lost their leaders, but they continue to fight. In addition, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq continue to threaten Israel.

Iran is also threatening more direct attacks, but it may be deterred by Trump’s return to the White House.

Iraqi militias remember that Trump ordered the airstrike that killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al Muhandis in 2020.

On the other hand, the Iranians may see a brief window of opportunity to launch a more aggressive attack on Israel before Trump is sworn in.

They are likely to suspect that Israel intends to take off the gloves after the US election.

The question is whether it will, as a year of war has left Israeli reservists exhausted and left many questions about long-term strategy in Gaza and Lebanon.