The Guardian: Israel provokes Hezbollah and its response will determine the future of the war
The Guardian published an article entitled “Israel provokes Hezbollah and its response will determine the future of the war” by journalist Amal Saad.
Saad believe in her article that with the assassination of Hamas deputy commander Saleh al Arouri in Lebanon, Israel risks a worrying escalation of events.
The incident represents a major escalation, because it represents the deepest Israeli incursion into Lebanese territory since October 8, and its most important attack since July 2006.
Moreover, it’s violating established red lines and rules of engagement by expanding the theater of war to Beirut, ignoring a warning issued by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in August when he warned Israel against engaging in assassinations on Lebanese soil.
Historically, Hezbollah has preferred to gradually build its military capabilities over the long term rather than immediately respond to individual attacks, but the current war and this latest escalation will force the movement to move quickly to deter further Israeli aggression.
Saad, and from her point of view, a clear response would be the only way to restore balance.
One of Hezbollah’s primary concerns is to continue targeting Palestinian officials in Lebanon, and Israel’s shift in its strategy to the less severe (third phase) – motivated by US pressure – has led to it redirecting some of its efforts towards operations that work to neutralize senior activists in Hamas and Islamic Jihad Abroad.
According to the leaked recordings, the head of the Shin Bet announced Israel’s intention to kill Hamas leaders everywhere.
Saad believes that Hezbollah wouldn’t have taken the initiative on October 8 and embarked on its military campaign in solidarity with Palestine, if it hadn’t been prepared for the possibility that its moderate conflict with Israel would turn into a conflict of high intensity.
Likewise, “I mocked Israeli threats to attack Lebanon if Hezbollah didn’t withdraw its forces from the border area and stop its cross-border strikes”.
Saad added in her article, “Hamas is confident not only of its ability to withstand the Israeli aggression, regardless of the costs in terms of human losses and infrastructure that Lebanon bears, but it’s also confident of its ability to cause similar destruction to Israel”.
“Since Hezbollah is closer to a conventional army than an armed group, it possesses the capabilities that enable it to inflict unprecedented harm on Israel.
“Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of advanced weapons, including long-range rockets and guided missiles, could paralyze civilian life throughout Israel and cause a great deal of destruction in the next war,” Saad concluded.
