The Economist: Will Syria’s isolation be broken?

At first, the opening of the Abu al Zandin crossing last August between opposition and Syrian government areas inside Syria seemed like a good omen for the reassembly of what had been divided in this country.

On a hill outside the northern Aleppo city of al Bab, militants protected by Türkiye and the Syrian army have removed barbed wire, and displaced Syrians in the north are making long-awaited plans to visit the country, excited by the prospect of being free of the exorbitant fees imposed by smugglers.

Foreign governments wondered whether the refugees could risk returning to their country, and a day later, shells were flying everywhere and the crossing was closed again.

While the eyes of the world are fixed on Gaza, the Syrian war has reached its 14th year, with more than 40,000 people killed and millions were displaced.

The shattered country, Syria, has become like its neighbor Lebanon, which is plagued by chaos and unrest, with ethnic and religious divisions even more pronounced.

Warlords backed by foreign powers now defend their areas of influence, paying salaries to their militias like bandits and imposing taxes on those who want to cross conflict lines.

Foreign powers have flocked to the country, embracing local leaders and playing on ethnic and religious differences.

A once-moderately wealthy and fast-growing economy now has a quarter of its population living on less than $2.15 a day, up from just a small percentage before 2011, when the war began.

The north, home to half of Syria’s population of 16 million, fell to opposition control eight years ago.

Türkiye-backed fighters now rule northwestern Syria, while US-backed Kurds rule the northeast.

The two regions are separated by the area inside Syria controlled by the Turkish armed forces and their local proxies, the Syrian Interim Government.

In the north, revenues from smuggling and the sale of oil and wheat have helped the Kurds and former jihadists in Idlib consolidate their rule.

Assad still believes he can reunite Syria and turn it back into a regional power, and speaks of administrative decentralization as the way to unify the country.

A plan is being prepared to end the policy of forced conscription, and analysts believe that the fear of Damascus’s enemies abroad of Iran and of a new wave of refugees may push them to abandon their demands to topple the regime and may urge them to restore relations with it.

These claims are certainly based on truth, as over the past year, the Arab League has reinstated Syria and begun sending aid to it.

Last July, eight member states of the European Union proposed the idea of ​​returning to dealing with Assad, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced his desire to restore relations with Syria and revive the Syrian economy as a means of persuading Syrian refugees to return.

Still, few countries would risk violating US sanctions by investing in Syria, let alone a reconstruction cost estimated at $200 billion by the World Bank.

The World Bank estimates that the Syrian economy has contracted by more than 80% since 2010, with the Syrian pound (lira) losing 99% of its value against the dollar since the war began, as the Lebanese pound (lira) has similarly collapsed.

In the north, Syrians have abandoned their currency, the lira and used the Turkish lira.

Over the past year, most government subsidies have been cut, making it harder to provide more basic services, as one teacher, whose salary no longer covers her bus fare to school, spoke to the Economist correspondent.

Although Türkiye has sent about 30,000 troops to northern Syria, it’s seeking to have the interim government play a supporting role in future stabilization efforts, with a portion of customs revenues allocated to it.

The interim government receives 15% of customs revenues at international border crossings, according to one official.

The bulk of these revenues go to local councils and the National Army militia, which has about 45,000 fighters.

The interim prime minister and some local representatives in these areas are of Turkish origin, and even some of the architectural restorations have been influenced by Turkish style, such as the minarets, which have been designed in fine metal.

Over the past two thousand years, Syria has been divided more times than it has been united, and history seems to be repeating itself again today.