The Economist: Crimea has become a death trap for Russian troops
According to the Economist, Russia appears to be suffering in Crimea under the weight of a lethal mix of rocket attacks and sophisticated drones that Ukraine is increasingly using to systematically weaken Russian air defenses in Crimea.
Kiev has been bombing air bases from which Russian interceptors fly and striking vital logistical and economic targets on the peninsula.
In this context, the Economist explained that the US approval last April of the $61 billion military support package provided by the Biden administration has begun to bear fruit, especially as it allowed the provision of Kiev with ATACM ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, which means that Ukraine is now able to hit any target in the Russian-occupied Crimea Peninsula, effectively.
What Ukraine may achieve, if it no longer has to fight with one hand tied behind its back, is its campaign in Crimea.
Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe and a senior NATO logistical adviser, said Ukrainians are “systematically working to make Ukraine a repellent environment for Russian forces”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has bet a lot on Crimea, linking it to mainland Russia via the Kerch Bridge since 2018, and considered it an unsinkable aircraft carrier, where logistics centers, air bases and the Black Sea Fleet, operating from its capital, Sevastopol, can be used to control southern Ukraine, stop Ukraine’s vital grain exports, and provide a steady flow of men and equipment to the Russian front to push Ukraine to withdraw completely from the Donbas province.
The Russian president has invested huge sums in Crimea’s military infrastructure, all of which is now at risk.
While the Economist ruled out, in the current balance of power, a large-scale amphibious offensive by the Ukrainians to liberate Crimea, it stressed that this region is Russia’s soft flank and has much to defend.
So what Ukraine is trying to do is to make Crimea a hindrance rather than a source of strength for Putin, and the goal is to isolate it and thus push the Russian air force and navy away from southern Ukraine and suffocate Crimea as a logistics center.
Ukrainian drones and missiles have halted about half of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, forcing almost all that remains of it to move from Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk, more than 300 kilometers away on the Russian mainland.
It added that Novorossiysk itself was attacked by Ukrainian naval and air drones on May 17.
A railway station and a power plant as well as the naval base were bombed.
General Hodges says he is confident the Ukrainians will tear down the Kerch Bridge when they are ready.
The Economist predicted that the early test of the broader strategic success of Ukraine’s campaign in Crimea will be this summer, when Russian holidaymakers usually flock across the Kerch Bridge to resorts on the peninsula.
Ben Barry, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said a halt in the flow to Crimea by the Russians this summer would be a bad omen for Putin, as the peninsula relies heavily on the tourism industry and bookings fell almost half last year.
He says, “Crimea has turned from a prestigious project into a drain on Russian resources”.
