Prigozhin’s death aftermath: Wagner was created to Survive

After the loss of its three most influential leaders on Wednesday, the image of the Russian Wagner group has declined to a large extent, but it remains a model for an armed organization indirectly linked to the Russian state that is flexible in its movements, a model that is expected to continue.

At a time when the armed group lost its leader, who was distinguished by his strong presence, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner lost its second man, Dmitry Utkin, and the one in charge of logistics, Valery Chekalov, which will clearly affect the way it operates and operates.

Russian far-right movements active within the military sphere on the Internet called the group a burner, as they’re talking about a corrupt political and military elite that is disconnected from reality.

On the other hand, they respected Prigozhin for his courageous personality and that he wasn’t afraid of criticizing the senior army commanders and often inspected his men on the battlefields.

Some talk about his revenge, however, these threats are difficult to implement in the short term, given the way the Kremlin has isolated Wagner and tightened surveillance on the group after it crossed borders with its rebellion last June, and it’s no longer possible for it to escape the wrath of President Vladimir Putin.

Prigozhin’s death leaves the way open for the Russian president to rethink the structure of this parallel empire, which may have paid the price for the belief that it is an invincible force.

It will also be an opportunity to re-crystalize the image of the Russian private military companies sector.

“One of the lessons Putin may have learned from last June’s rebellion is the danger of giving too much power and responsibility to one man,” Katrina Duxey, an expert on mercenary groups at the CSIS think tank in Washington writes.

She continued, “If Russia wants to maintain the model of private military companies in its foreign policy and security assistance, it’s likely to diversify the market to close the way for the hypothesis of the emergence of another Prigozhin… Indeed, there are many other similar companies in Russia”.

For this idea to succeed, it requires the availability of a set of conditions, including attracting Putin’s attention as well as the financing capacity, and having a tool of influence.

Other Russian private military companies have a much smaller presence than Wagner and are less successful than it, but they follow the same structure.

Wagner dissidents who have close ties with Russian military intelligence have joined them.

It’s likely that the Kremlin will play with it, as is the case with Wagner, a double role, between controlling and supporting it on the one hand, and staying at a sufficient distance from it on the other hand so that it doesn’t have to bear responsibility for all its actions and actions, especially in African countries.

It’s also expected that the Russian state will exercise more direct control over these private military companies in foreign countries, without fully recognizing that they are subject to the direct authority of the Kremlin.

How Wagner will be dismantled in the future remains uncertain to this day.

This could be done, according to Caterina Doxey, by giving them a new name and dividing the companies in Wagner’s orbit into separate entities, and then perhaps nationalizing them or keeping them quasi-autonomous.

However, loyalty to the Kremlin won’t be the subject of discussion and negotiation.

Moscow cannot do without such a tool, which has proven effective for years, in Africa and the Middle East, but also in the war that Putin unleashed on his neighbor Ukraine, as the latest Russian tactical successes in Ukraine were achieved thanks to Wagner.

Without repeating the same mistakes, the trend appears to be effective to preserve this practical model of informal and flexible structures that are able to abandon the bureaucratic red tape that official bodies face to intervene where the state does not want to intervene directly.

However, the transition won’t be smooth even without Prigozhin resisting the dismantling of his empire and life project.

Russian investigative journalist Denis Korotkov considers, “Prigozhin had great freedom of action, great ability to work, obvious enthusiasm, proven organizational skills, and had no desire for personal enrichment… I don’t see anyone like him”.