Kiel Research Institute: The Military aid to Ukraine at the lowest level
Germany’s Kiel Research Institute predicted on Wednesday that military aid to Ukraine will reach its lowest level in 2025, as European countries, most of which are currently providing the bulk, are unable to make up for the halt in US aid.
“According to the data available until October, Europe hasn’t been able to send aid with the same momentum as in the first half of 2025,” Kiel Institute team leader Christoph Trebesch said in a statement.
The Kiel Institute is concerned with tracking the military, financial and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since the Russian war on February 24, 2022.
Prior to Donald Trump’s decision to halt aid when he returned to the White House in early 2025, the United States was providing more than half of that military aid.
The German institute said that while European countries initially succeeded in making up for this, their aid has been declining since the beginning of the summer.
“If this slowdown continues in the next two months, 2025 will be the year that sees the lowest level of new aid to Ukraine” since 2022, Trebesch said.
In the first ten months of 2025, 32.5 billion Euros in military aid were allocated to Ukraine, most of which was provided by Europe. In just two months, Ukraine’s allies will need to allocate more than €5 billion to reach the lowest annual level allocated in 2022 (€37.6 billion), and more than €9 billion to reach an annual average of €41.6 billion between 2022 and 2024.
However, only €2 billion per month was allocated on average during the period from July to October.
France, Germany and the United Kingdom have doubled, or even tripled, their contributions, while Italy’s support has fallen by 15%, and Spain hasn’t allocated any new military aid for 2025, researchers at the Kiel Institute said.
The European Commission is currently seeking to use amounts of Russia’s central bank’s frozen assets in the European Union, estimated at 200 billion Euros, to finance a loan to Ukraine.
The target is to release €90 billion initially at the summit of heads of state and government scheduled for December 18 in Brussels.
But the complex plan, under which Euroclear would lend money to the European Union and in turn to Kyiv, faces stiff opposition from Belgium, which fears retaliation from Russia.
