Israeli expert: The security agreement with Syria is a strategic trap that may serve the Turkish-Qatari axis
Dr. Kfir Tshuva, an expert in game theory and decision-making, warned of the dangers of the security agreement currently being developed between Israel and Syria.
He considered it a “strategic trap” for Israel, as it would lead to a security-political framework that serves the Turkish-Qatari axis at the expense of Israeli interests.
In an interview with Maariv newspaper, Tshuva said that talk of a new disengagement agreement with Syria isn’t merely a technical or neutral measure.
Rather, it includes an Israeli withdrawal, strengthening the legitimacy of the Syrian regime, and providing a political-security cover that would allow Türkiye and Qatar to expand their influence in the region.
He explained that Ankara is behind the scenes, having transformed in recent years from an economic partner to a political adversary, and recently imposed a harsh trade embargo on Israel, including halting the export of vital materials such as steel, aluminum, electronic components, and raw materials for the military industry.
He added that any agreement that grants Türkiye additional influence in Syria, without requiring the restoration of strategic trade relations, would be a dangerous political and economic concession.
The expert described the agreement, according to game theory, as a strategic deception game, in which one party appears to be seeking a settlement while actually aiming to strengthen its power and constrain its opponent.
He said the agreement could legitimize a Turkish-Qatari security presence in northern Syria and limit Israel’s strategic thwarting operations.
He pointed out that Israel’s strategic air superiority, thanks to its exclusive use of F-35 fighter jets, could be jeopardized if US restrictions on Türkiye are lifted, enabling it to purchase fifth-generation aircraft, as this would shift the regional balance of power against Israel.
He also warned that the agreement would grant legitimacy to Hay’at Tahrir al Sham leader Abu Mohammed a Julani, paving the way for him to participate in regional trade networks between Syria, Türkiye, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, bypassing Israel and threatening strategic projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
He added that Israel’s traditional partners, such as the Druze in the south and the Kurds in the north, could find themselves without guarantees of protection, sending a message of abandonment and weakening allies’ confidence in Israel.
According to Dr. Tshuva, the West, particularly Europe, has an interest in stabilizing Syria with the goal of returning hundreds of thousands of refugees, which gives Israel an opportunity to impose corresponding conditions, such as lifting European security restrictions and opening markets for its defense exports.
He concluded by saying: “In a regional reality where all parties are moving strategically, any concession without a price is a net loss… Israel must insist on a clear price: renewing strategic trade, restricting arms exports to Türkiye, maintaining air superiority, protecting allies, and extracting political gains with Europe… Any agreement that doesn’t include these conditions is nothing but an illusion of stability that will quickly collapse”.
