Haaretz: What will happen after Trump grants Ahmed al Sharaa “a credit with no guarantees?

The Israeli Haaretz newspaper highlighted growing signs that Syria could once again slide into civil war.

This is due to the growing influence of armed militias operating outside the control of the state, amid the clear weakness of the new government led by Ahmed al Sharaa, who took power following the collapse of Assad’s regime.

According to Haaretz, the US Secretary of State issued an explicit warning to the Senate, pointing to the fragility of the transitional authority, which could collapse within weeks due to bloody clashes in several Syrian cities, most notably Latakia Governorate, which has recorded more than 1,700 deaths—the majority of them civilians—due to clashes between armed groups and members of the Alawite sect.

Sweida also witnessed clashes between Islamist factions and Druze residents, leaving dozens of casualties.

The report indicated that the most prominent challenges facing al Sharaa lie in the foreign groups that fought alongside him against the former regime and then transformed after its fall into independent forces that refuse to submit.

These militias are estimated to include fighters from Russia, Türkiye, the Caucasus, and Egypt, some of whom have become integrated into state institutions and assumed senior positions, while others seek to impose an extremist religious agenda by force of arms.

In light of the clear lack of distinction between “legitimate” militias and those outside of control, and the presence of extremist elements within the security services, the country appears to be heading towards a period of profound chaos, placing the transitional government facing internal pressure from its armed allies and external pressure from Washington, which is demanding the expulsion of foreign fighters.

According to human rights testimonies, last March witnessed massacres in Latakia that claimed the lives of more than 1,700 people, including at least 900 civilians.

In the same month, clashes erupted in Sweida, claiming the lives of more than 100 people, raising concerns about the spread of sectarian and regional clashes.

Although many of these militia members hold Syrian citizenship, the foreigners among their ranks—some of whom have established families and settled in Syria—have become a source of concern, especially given that some adhere to a religious regime, while others are affiliated with extremist groups such as ISIS.

This threatens to resurgence of armed tensions if these challenges continue to be ignored.

In a related context, the governor of Latakia asked the leaders of Christian communities to advise women to wear modest clothing, such as the “burkini,” when attending beaches.

While no official orders have been issued to ban clothing or alcohol, a climate of popular intimidation prevails, fueled by militias acting as de facto authorities.

The new government has announced that it will pursue these illegal groups, but it faces a real challenge in light of the overlap between the responsibilities of the security services and the activities of armed militias.

It’s difficult for citizens to distinguish between state agents and members of extremist groups, especially with reports of police officers being involved in supporting these militias.

The United States has set conditions for lifting sanctions on Syria, including the exclusion of foreign fighters and the dismantling of militias.

This poses a challenge for President al Sharaa, who seeks to maintain a fragile balance between pleasing his allies on the ground and responding to Washington’s demands.

Former US President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions appears to have come in response to pressure from Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, giving al Sharaa a rare, but risky, opportunity.

While observers believe the future of the transitional Syrian regime now hangs in the balance, Senator Rubio summed up the situation with a striking statement, “Dealing with them may lead to success or failure, but ignoring them will certainly lead to failure”.