Foreign Policy: Why did Israel’s security doctrine collapse after October 7?

American academic Marc Lynch believes that what he called the ambitious strategic shift of a military nature, which Israel adopted after the events of October 7, 2023, has reached a stage of structural failure after Israel failed to achieve its goals.

In an article in Foreign Policy magazine, Lynch—a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University—explained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempt to replace the traditional conflict management policy with the doctrine of ending threats has produced nothing but a regional quagmire, international isolation, and a return to the cycle of violence that he sought to break, but at a more devastating human and material cost.

Lynch recalled that – prior to October 7, 2023 – Israel practiced a doctrine known as mowing the lawn, which consists of periodic and limited military campaigns aimed at weakening the capabilities of adversaries such as Hamas and Hezbollah and enhancing deterrence, without sliding into a full-scale war or seeking to overthrow regimes.

But that approach was shattered by the shock of October 7, according to the writer, and Israel rushed towards a more offensive vision aimed at the complete destruction of Hamas, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and regime change or pushing the state to collapse in Iran.

The ultimate goal was to establish what is called “Pax Judaica,” a new regional order dominated by Israel, in which the Palestinian issue is erased from the international agenda, and Arab states are integrated into a security structure on purely Israeli terms.

According to Lynch, several factors convinced Israeli leaders that this radical shift was achievable, including the unconditional support Israel received from the administrations of US Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump for more than two years, which gave the impression of complete immunity against any legal or international repercussions.

In addition, there is the factor of military euphoria against the backdrop of remarkable events such as the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and the collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria, which has reinforced in Israel a false sense of technological superiority and the ability to resolve matters militarily without significant cost.

However, this vision – in the writer’s view – has faded, because despite the unprecedented violence and breaking of international rules, Israel has failed to impose its will; Hezbollah has returned to the rise in Lebanon, the all-out air war has failed to topple the Iranian regime, and Hamas has remained steadfast in Gaza.

The American academic believes that “Netanyahu’s claims of success – based on weakening the capabilities of his opponents – are in reality an admission of defeat, and a return to the very doctrine he had hoped to abandon”.

On Saturday evening, hundreds of people participated in a demonstration in Stockholm, the Swedish capital, in support of Palestine and condemning the Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Activists gathered in the Odenplan area of ​​Stockholm, waving Palestinian flags and holding banners that read, “There is a massacre in Palestine,” “Freedom is near,” “There is genocide in Gaza,” and “An immediate and indefinite ceasefire in Gaza”.

Lynch argues that one of the most significant failures of this doctrine is the collapse of Israel’s diplomatic standing with its neighbors.

After hoping that its show of force would make it an attractive ally to the Gulf states, it has turned into a source of threat in their eyes.

Accordingly, Lynch notes that Israel’s pursuit of absolute victory has only increased the costs of managing the conflict in the future, as Israel is now forced to return to the previous strategy (mowing the lawn), but under much worse conditions.

Lynch warns that the long-term consequences will be dire; the atrocities in Gaza and Lebanon have led to a transgenerational backlash in Europe and America, threatening Israel’s most important sources of external support.

By prioritizing political survival and military expansion, Netanyahu has led his country into a series of endless and pointless wars, which has left Israel more isolated and vulnerable than ever before.

Lynch concluded that despite all the destruction Israel has inflicted on its enemies, it hasn’t succeeded in eliminating any of them, not even Hamas, which means that the security doctrine after October 7, 2023 is considered a historic failure by all standards.