Foreign Policy: Iran is making its way towards nuclear military weapons

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi announced in a statement last Saturday that Iran doesn’t seek to possess nuclear weapons, noting that the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, had issued a fatwa prohibiting this.

His statements came after a series of Iranian statements that talked about reconsidering Iran’s position on nuclear weapons, as a response to the Israeli attack on an Iranian mission in Damascus.

Sina Azoudi, an expert on the Iranian nuclear program, wrote a report in Foreign Policy magazine explaining that there is a growing debate within Iran about the effectiveness of possessing nuclear weapons.

During a television talk in January 2024, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, was asked whether the time had come for Iran to have nuclear weapons, or at least conduct a nuclear test.

Although he denied the need for nuclear weapons and cited Iran’s defense policy, the mere fact that the question was posed on Iranian state television indicates that there is an internal debate on this issue.

Over the past few months, speculation about Iran’s nuclear program has begun to increase, especially after the escalation in Gaza and the subsequent attacks on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which Iran accused Israel of being behind.

In response to this strike, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel, a notable escalation.

To date, the US National Intelligence Assessment continues to indicate that Iran has not taken steps to weaponize its nuclear program.

However, Iran’s technical capabilities have advanced significantly since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.

Given continuing tensions, Iran could find that nuclear weapons are a means of deterring Israel’s perceived superiority.

Based on the analysis of Ali Salehi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Iran has reached a high level of development in nuclear technology, making the decision to go nuclear dependent on politics.

These ongoing tensions, exacerbated by recent events, may prompt some Iranian leaders to abandon their conservative stance on nuclear weapons.

Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel carry great risks, as continued tensions, especially with continued Iranian attacks and Israeli responses, are expected to encourage further hardening of Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

An attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could trigger serious reactions, possibly prompting Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

An Iranian nuclear scientist familiar with the details of the Iranian nuclear program told me that Iran has distributed its nuclear facilities and created multiple sites, so that operations can continue even if one of them is targeted.

He stated that even if Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, it couldn’t eliminate the technical knowledge that the Iranians had acquired over decades.

Therefore, Iran can rebuild its nuclear program if necessary, as it possesses the necessary technology to enrich uranium, which keeps it always on the cusp of obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Under these circumstances, the Iranian nuclear crisis has no military solution.

The attack on the Iranian consulate building in Damascus shows the beginning of a new phase in the conflict between Iran and Israel, as this attack violated the implicit understanding between the two countries about keeping their conflict within a shadow war.

Slowly, Iran is approaching the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, but the decision to weaponize its nuclear program depends largely on the regional threats perceived by Iran’s political leadership.

So far, the benefits Iran has gained from its current approach to the nuclear program appear to outweigh its costs.

However, regional tensions must be carefully monitored, as increasing events and developments may lead to an escalation of the conflict and open the way for Iran to weaponize its nuclear program.