DW: East Germany elections…potentially disastrous repercussions for Scholz’s government

Although the elections on September 1 took place in only two of Germany’s 16 states, with only five million voters out of more than 61 million eligible voters across Germany, the elections in Thuringia and Saxony have significance beyond the regional framework.

That’s partly because the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany party, which is considered extreme in some German states, won more than a third of the vote in a parliamentary election for the first time, and the newly formed left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance achieved double-digit results.

On the other hand, because never before have the parties that make up the federal government the ruling coalition in Berlin achieved such poor results together in a regional election like this.

The AfD received more than twice as many votes as the parties in Germany’s so-called “traffic light” coalition government, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), combined.

The results of these parties were poor, with the Greens and the FDP failing to win enough votes to enter parliament in either Saxony or Thuringia.

According to the polls, the SPD was also threatened with losing its seats in the state legislatures in both states, but in the end the Social Democrats survived this disaster.

Did the voters want to send a message to the federal government?

Four out of five Germans are dissatisfied with the work of the government in Berlin, and this is nothing new.

In the two polls of the first television channel, the periodical known as “ARD-Deutschlandtrend” Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ministers regularly score poorly.

The coalition government is seen as divided and incapable of making decisions.

“We need to look at ourselves,” Green Party leader Omid Nouripour admitted on election night.

That wasn’t enough… Before the state elections, the government had already taken urgent measures in response to pressure following the stabbing in the western city of Solingen in North Rhine-Westphalia a week earlier.

On immigration and security policy, a rapid and unexpected tightening of measures was announced, and 28 criminals were already deported to Afghanistan.

The AfD sees these results as a broad confirmation of its political approach.

The party’s federal chairwoman, Alice Weidel, pointed out on the evening of the election that the regional elections had given her party a historic success and called on the federal government to resign.

“This is also punishment for the ‘traffic light’ government,” she said, and the results are a funeral prayer for the continuity of this coalition.

“The traffic light government must ask itself whether it can continue to govern… After the Brandenburg elections, the question of calling new elections must be raised, because things cannot go on like this,” she added.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the results as bitter, expressing concern about the AfD’s results in Saxony and Thuringia.

“Our country cannot and must not get used to this,” Scholz stressed.

“The AfD is harming Germany… It’s weakening the economy, dividing society and damaging our country’s reputation,” he added.

On September 22, after the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, there will be regional elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg.

As there, the AfD is leading in the polls, with the SPD close behind; The SPD will do everything it can to keep calm in the weeks leading up to these elections, because they have a lot at stake in Brandenburg.

The Social Democratic Party has led the government there since 1990.

“I expect everyone to do more now than they have done so far,” warned party leader Lars Klingbeil.

He stressed the need to work together to win back voters, saying, “Everyone must now do their part to make the electoral situation better”.

Despite poor results in the parliamentary elections in Thuringia and Saxony, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz can count on the support of his party, according to Lars Klingbeil, who thus dismissed all discussions on the leadership issue within the Social Democratic Party.

The party leadership confirmed that Scholz will lead the party in the upcoming federal elections.

This unity could change abruptly if Prime Minister Dietmar Woedke, who has been in office for 11 years, fails to win re-election in Brandenburg.

Then voices within the SPD could grow calling for Scholz to be replaced by the popular defense minister, Boris Pistorius, as the party’s candidate for chancellor in the federal elections in September 2025.

Will the coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party survive?

Poor results in the regional parliamentary elections and poor results in the opinion polls at the federal level only affect the public mood.

There are also growing calls within the parties to clarify their vision and political identity.

“It’s now up to my party to become more independent and to show more clearly what only the Social Democrats can offer, and not to let anyone encroach on us,” says SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert.

The dispute isn’t limited to next year’s budget, which must be approved in the Bundestag.

It also remains to be seen whether the federal government will be able to implement the measures it has announced on immigration policy.

There are dissenting voices on the left wing of the Social Democrats and the Greens who don’t agree with these measures.