Drone War: Turkey turning into a new tactic against the Kurds in northern Syria

The military reinforcements along the Turkish-Syrian border strip, reaching the outskirts of the town of Tel Rifaat in the northern countryside of Aleppo, and the outskirts of the western countryside of Aleppo, indicate field changes that the region may be approaching, in light of the Syrian-Russian insistence on opening the Idlib battle, And the Turkish desire to annex new areas of control at the expense of the Syria Democratic forces.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is waiting for the results of his upcoming meeting with US President Joe Biden, on the sidelines of the “Twenty Summit” at the end of this month, to find out the nature of US trends, and Washington’s opinion on launching a new Turkish military operation, especially after Ankara received some kind of US moral support.

By confirming Turkey’s right to protect its borders, after targeting Turkish territory from the Syrian interior, and the killing of two Turkish soldiers in the city of Marea in the northern countryside of Aleppo, this month.

Erdogan pre-empted his meeting with Biden with political and media escalation in the face of the SDF, and expressing complete seriousness in preparing to take military steps against it, in parallel with blaming Washington and Moscow for preventing him from securing his borders and eliminating the Kurdish forces there.

Erdogan also hinted at the possibility of confronting these forces with new methods, while expressing the determination to end their presence, leading to securing his country’s borders with Syria.

This hint intersects with the recent field escalation that Ankara has pursued against the SDF, whether by intensifying missile and artillery targeting, or by activating the movement of drones, and working to target mechanisms for leaders in the “Self-Administration”, as happened last September, in each of the appointed Arabs, Qamishli and Tal Tamr.

Despite this escalation, which is accompanied by military reinforcements on the ground, the leaders of the “SDF” do not see any Turkish seriousness in launching a large-scale military operation against its forces, based on American and Russian assurances obtained during the visit of the “SDF” delegation to Moscow and Washington, last month.

Indicating the aforementioned reassurance is the statement of the joint head of the Syria Democratic Forces, Riad Darrar, who said that “it is unlikely that Turkey will dare to occupy more Syrian lands,” stressing that there are no “agreements or any green light for such an issue”.

Nevertheless, Ankara’s threats appear to be somewhat serious, especially in light of the pretext of the missiles that targeted Turkish territory, which Erdogan will seek to invest in his meeting with Biden, to obtain US approval for an operation similar to the “Peace Spring” launched by Turkey in Autumn 2019, or coordinating air strikes against targets identified by its army.

Turkey is also working, by dropping leaflets on Turkish planes over the city of Tal Rifaat in the northern countryside of Aleppo, and adjacent to the towns of Nubl and al Zahra, to send messages to Iran and Russia about their seriousness in launching a military operation against the SDF, in retaliation for its soldiers killed in Marea, even in sensitive areas of Rifaat blocs, which Turkish forces have previously avoided, due to the possibility of confrontation with the Russians and the Iranians.

Also, the Syrian government insistence, backed by Iran, and perhaps partially Russia, to regain full control of the M4 road, linking the countryside of Aleppo with Idlib, all the way to the Bab al Hawa crossing, would push Turkey to demand a field price for the expected loss in southern Syria.

In this context, several reports confirmed that Turkey is serious about targeting the SDF, and taking steps to weaken it, in preparation for achieving the main Turkish goal of ending its presence in Syria completely, expecting that Ankara will work to obtain an US green light.

Russia, on the other hand will launch a large-scale military operation to nibble more of the lands under the control of the SDF, however, there are no clear indications yet about Turkey’s ability to extract the green light from the United States or Russia, at the present time.

It is likely that “in the coming days, Turkey will adopt an offensive method, which proved effective last September, by intensifying the use of drones to target the headquarters and movements of SDF throughout the areas under its control from Hasakeh and Deir al Zour to Manbij, and Turkey will work to Paralyzing the SDF movement to put pressure on Moscow and Washington, and prove their seriousness in fighting and eliminating Kurdish forces, even in the presence of a US-Russian military presence in their areas of control, considering that “the intensification of the work of drones, is what the Turkish president intended, perhaps by using different methods against the SDF.

This method will cause confusion in the ranks of the SDF, and threaten its military structure, headquarters and armament capabilities, and these targets may be a prelude to a broad military operation that Turkey seeks to impose against vital areas under SDF control, between the Raqqa and Aleppo countryside.