Deutsche Welle: Modernizing the German army… Will compulsory conscription return soon?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the recent threats of former US President Donald Trump revealed a weakness in German defense policy in particular and European defense policy in general, is compulsory conscription the solution?

After years of neglect, the German army is renewing its equipment, mechanisms and combat systems, however, money alone doesn’t solve all problems or fill all gaps.

The greatest deficiency is in the human element; After all, someone has to fly the new plane, fly the tanks, use the weapons, and perform the necessary maintenance on the equipment.

Hence, compulsory conscription is being discussed again.

The conservative opposition from the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union supports the reintroduction of compulsory service, which can be civilian, not just military.

The three ruling coalition parties, namely the Social Democratic Party (center-left), the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party (liberal), are more skeptical.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius tweets that he is out of the loop in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.

He described the cessation of compulsory military service in 2011 as a “mistake” and wants to hold a public debate about its re-implementation.

“It’s clear that Pistorius wants to put forward different ideas,” Sophia Pesch of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told DW.

“This serves his larger goal of attracting more attention to the German military as an employer,” the Ministry of Defense says it’s considering different options.

Perhaps the German Bundestag will have to pass some reforms in this regard.

For decades, young men in both West and East Germany had to perform military service.

Compulsory military service remained in effect even after the end of the Cold War in unified Germany until Parliament suspended it in 2011.

However, compulsory service is constitutional according to the “Basic Law” (the German Constitution).

“After the financial crisis, the guiding principle was to save, save, save,” Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl, head of the Federal Academy for Security Policy, told DW.

Germany wasn’t alone in this regard, as many other NATO countries preceded Germany by transforming their armies into professional armies, by reducing numbers and raising the professionalism of individuals.

At the end of the Cold War, the German army numbered nearly 500,000 soldiers, but in the final year of compulsory military service, 2010, there were only about half that number.

Today, only about 181,500 soldiers serve in the armed forces.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, defense policymakers have been thinking very differently about the funding and purpose of the Bundeswehr.

There are now plans to increase the armed forces to 203,000 men and women by 2031.

Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl says, “We must have an effective deterrent force in the German army… This means we need more people… How can we find them? Relying on market power to fill the shortfall is difficult”.

Regarding compulsory military service, Major General Wolf-Jürgen Stahl points out the need to strike a balance between the “rights and duties” of the citizen.

In recent years, the German army has had to deal with the problem of far-right sympathizers in its ranks.

Compulsory conscription was and still is a means of ensuring equality between citizens from all segments of society.

The citizen in military uniform is a role model, and recruitment creates a more democratic army, avoiding the country from falling into the trap of an army whose members are mostly military-inclined.

When considering reviving compulsory military service, one of the “decisive factors,” according to a Defense Ministry spokeswoman, is “the contribution that compulsory military service can make to strengthening the ties between German society and the army”.

But restoring compulsory military service isn’t easy, for example, conscription on women, and perhaps on foreigners as well, might have to be legalized.

Several experiments and models are currently being studied, such as the Swedish model.

Sweden studies the file of every citizen between the ages of 16 and 70, and assigns civil and military tasks to whomever it deems appropriate, according to the state’s need and the capabilities of each individual; The number of Swedes in active service is very small.

The advantage of this model is that it can be turned on and off very quickly as required by the security situation.

The conscription system in the United States, which abolished conscription after its defeat in the Vietnam War, is different from Sweden.

There the files of all young males between the ages of 18 and 25 years are studied.

In theory, the 15 million men on muster lists could be mobilized, but since not all of them have received military training, it’s unclear how useful each of them would be in a war.

The problem isn’t only how to increase the number of German army personnel.

A Defense Ministry spokeswoman said, “The immediate reintroduction of compulsory military service will pose practical and personnel challenges for the German army”.

This includes providing accommodation, clothing, and weapons, which are deficiencies that the current German army, which is smaller in number and size, and German army cannot easily absorb the sudden increase in the number of recruits.

Setting a goal of reaching 203,000 soldiers by 2031 isn’t arbitrary; This number is possible by 2031, or at least striving to reach it.