Der Spiegel: A crisis is shaking Merz’s government… The possible collapse of the ruling coalition
German political circles are increasingly discussing the possibility of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government collapsing, as tensions continue to escalate between the ruling coalition partners — the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
The disputes center on key issues including immigration policy, economic reforms, military spending, and social welfare programs.
German media and press have raised the prospect of a scenario that could pave the way for early parliamentary elections: the formation of a minority government.
Such a government would remain in office without a stable parliamentary majority, relying instead on ad hoc agreements with opposition parties to pass legislation.
Der Spiegel described the prospect as “a scenario no one wants,” warning that political instability in Germany could have serious consequences not only domestically but also across Europe.
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder compared the current atmosphere to the political turmoil that preceded the collapse of the Weimar Republic and the eventual rise of the Nazi regime.
Since World War II, Germany has experienced only four minority governments, all of which either collapsed quickly or led to early elections, as among the most notable examples were:
- Konrad Adenauer’s government in 1962
- Ludwig Erhard’s government in 1966
- Helmut Schmidt’s government in 1982
- Olaf Scholz’s government following the breakdown of his coalition in 2024
The Merz’s government is currently trapped in an ongoing crisis, particularly after a tense meeting with SPD parliamentary representatives, amid declining public support for the government and the stagnation of reforms promised by the chancellor last year.
Meanwhile, there are four possible scenarios for the future of the government: Merz remaining in power through a minority government after losing a confidence vote, or calling early federal election, or simply he stepping down and the German Bundestag select a new chancellor.
The final scenario according to the German media is that the CDU continuing in government without the SPD.
The current opinion polls suggest that any early election could significantly benefit the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), potentially allowing the party to emerge as the strongest political force in the country for the first time.
