Contribution for Syrializm
It’s known about the nature of the Turkish president, and his way of getting what he wants, especially when it’s from a side with whom he has a special relationship.
Perhaps this is the case that brings together Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Since Russia announced its withdrawal from the grain export agreement, the world has been in confusion.
This agreement, which was reached under Turkish auspices, and with the blessing of the United Nations, aimed in its “humanitarian” aspect, so to speak, to allow Ukraine to export its food products to the world, through a safe sea crossing, without being subjected to Russian attack, and at the same time reducing some Western sanctions against Russia with regard to some logistics and spare parts supplies related to agricultural equipment, not to mention Russia’s export of its agricultural products without sanctions-related impediments, and Russia’s ban on the global financial transfer system SWIFT.
As for its political aspect, it’s the Turkish president’s continued marketing himself internationally, as a head of state who enjoys influence and special capabilities, in addition to establishing Turkiye’s global role and influence, and its ability to influence and play major roles in sensitive global issues.
Turkiye, the NATO member after all, cannot force the West to fulfill its obligations under the grain deal, and thus Erdogan has strong arguments in his upcoming talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The grain deal, is an agreement concluded between Russia and the West, yes it was made possible thanks to Turkish mediation, however it seems like Erdogan was the one who reaped gains from that agreement.
With a simple example, both France and the United States are still buying nuclear fuel to operate their nuclear reactors from Russia, despite the sanctions and all the escalation, at a time when the media in the West generally doesn’t pay any attention to this breach, perhaps because there are no political deals in this field, nor international mediators.
But with regard to the grain agreement, it has a much greater international impact, and here comes the Turkish mediation.
The continuity of the grain agreement is very important for Erdogan, Vladimir Putin on the other hand, seeks for it in order to obtain a breach in the wall of Western sanctions against his country, without making humiliating concessions to Russia, a country that is engaged in an actual war against NATO in Ukraine.
Some probabilities say that the Turkish president, and what many Turks describe as a “merchant”, will persuade Putin to return to the agreement, by placing Turkiye as a commercial mediator between the two parties, so that each party gets what it wants, and Turkey gains economically and politically through this commercial mediation process.
In short, the possible grain deal 2.0, will be with Turkish trade mediator between Russia and countries that want to buy Russian products, but fear Western sanctions.
On the other hand, Ukraine will be able to export its products.
Erdogan, cannot promise to fulfill all Russia’s requirements on the grain deal, this isn’t in his hands.
However, he can use his ways to try to convince the West can stop blocking Russian merchant ships, connecting Russian banks to SWIFT.
And thus, the Bosporus won’t be closed in front of Russian ships, because that would be a flagrant violation of the Montreux Convention and would cause a sharp reaction from the international community.
The Turkish president may, in one way or another, reduce trade exchange with Russia, as a form of pressure on the Russian president, but this is unlikely, and the Turkish president cannot venture into a move that will harm Turkey much more than Russia, which has withstood the heap of international sanctions imposed on a country in human history.
