Axios: Complex calculations… Trump appears hesitant about striking Iran

Advisors close to US President Donald Trump revealed that the question currently preoccupying his mind is: Could the United States, if it decided to intervene alongside Israel, destroy Iran’s most fortified nuclear facility using its bunker-buster bombs?

According to Axios website, this question reflects the extent of the technical and strategic complexities preventing Trump from making a decisive decision regarding a potential military strike against Iran, against the backdrop of ongoing escalation in the region.

According to US officials, President Trump wants to ensure that any potential attack is truly necessary and achieves tangible results, most importantly crippling Iran’s nuclear program, without leading to prolonged US involvement in a new conflict in the Middle East.

One of these officials said, “We’re ready to carry out a strike if necessary, but the president is still hesitant and doesn’t want to make a decision unless he is convinced of the full feasibility of the operation”.

The Fordo nuclear facility is a potential target… but can it be destroyed?

Information indicates that the Fordo nuclear facility, located south of the capital, Tehran, tops the list of potential targets for any US-Israeli strike.

This heavily fortified facility, located within a mountain, was built to withstand airstrikes, making its destruction extremely difficult.

While the United States possesses GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs and B-2 stealth bombers capable of delivering them, Israel does not have such capabilities, making American cooperation essential if the site is targeted.

Trump confirmed in a press statement that his country was the only one capable of destroying Fordow, but added, “That doesn’t mean I’ll do it… I haven’t made my decision yet”.

In this context, one official said that President Trump directly asked his military advisors about the MOB’s ability to destroy the Fordo facility, and Pentagon officials confirmed that the weapon was effective for this mission.

Although this bomb hasn’t yet been used in any conflict, multiple tests have demonstrated its high effectiveness.

However, one official explained that Trump isn’t yet fully convinced by this assessment.

An informed source explained, “The strike isn’t just dropping a bomb… There is a complete plan that must be carefully implemented, and the ultimate goal is to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon… Israel threatens to act alone”.

For its part, Israel continues to push for joint military action, but affirms its readiness to act unilaterally if necessary.

The Israeli prime minister and military officials have said that a military option is on the table, including special operations, not just airstrikes.

Axios reports that Israeli special forces carried out a successful operation last September to destroy an underground missile factory by planting explosive devices at the site, demonstrating their ability to carry out precise attacks deep within enemy territory.

An Israeli official warned the Trump administration that failure to destroy Fordo would mean the survival of Iran’s nuclear program, which Tel Aviv considers an existential threat.

Meanwhile, Trump held a new meeting with his national security team in the Situation Room to follow up on developments in the war between Israel and Iran.

A US official said, “Time is running out, and the president’s patience is running out… All options are on the table”.

Despite mounting pressure, Trump explained to reporters that he hadn’t yet made a decision on launching a military strike, stressing that he remained open to diplomatic solutions if they became available.

In contrast, the Iranian mission to the United Nations affirmed that Iran wouldn’t submit to any negotiations under pressure, and described Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a “warmonger”.

However, some indications from the Iranian side point to a possible willingness to return to the negotiating table, if the threats are eased and international guarantees are provided.

Given this complex balance between the need for nuclear deterrence and avoiding a slide into a new war, Trump’s decision regarding a military strike against Iran appears to still be under evaluation.

Will military calculations succeed in resolving the situation?

Or will diplomacy be given a last chance?