Washington Post: Trump has big plans for Pakistani oil

When US President Donald Trump announced a deal last week to exploit Pakistan’s massive oil reserves, it puzzled Pakistanis who had dreamed for decades of finding and extracting enough oil to improve their country’s economic standing.

Although none of Pakistan’s attempts to discover oil have been successful, according to the Washington Post, Trump expressed remarkable optimism in a post on Truth Social, declaring that “Pakistan and the United States will work together to develop our vast oil reserves”.

The Washington Post reported, in a report by Rick Nowak and Shaiq Hussain, that Pakistan imports about 80% of its oil supplies, yet Trump said hopefully, “Who knows? Maybe they’ll sell oil to India someday”.

The US Energy Information Administration estimates that Pakistan may have 9.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil, a figure Pakistani officials cite to attract foreign investors but which has yet to be proven, says energy researcher Afia Malik.

The Washington Post noted that Pakistan’s proven reserves are much lower, producing less than 100,000 barrels of oil per day in 2023.

This figure is significantly lower than that of the world’s major producers, such as the United States, which produces approximately 13 million barrels per day.

After a long history of setbacks and failures, many Pakistanis do not believe their country will ever become an oil-exporting nation.

“Bureaucracy, political interference, and inefficiency” have deterred foreign investors and limited progress in this direction, says Afia Malik.

The renewed US interest in Pakistan may not be about oil as much as its about access to minerals and rare earths, of which Pakistan is believed to have large and unexplored deposits.

However, Trump indicated that the new investments would come from private US sources, writing, “We’re in the process of selecting the oil company that will lead this partnership”.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, “As the president has said, Pakistan and the United States will work together to develop their vast oil reserves, which will enhance the economic security of both our countries”.

Pakistani officials welcomed Trump’s announcement, with Energy Minister Owais Leghari saying, “If there are investments coming from countries like the United States, China, and others, we welcome them… It’s good to see that on President Trump’s radar”.

However, Pakistani commentators were disbelieving, sometimes bordering on cynicism, with some arguing that Trump was sending a message to neighboring India.

Political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said, “Pakistan may be merely a pressure point, not the primary beneficiary of this engagement”.

While some question whether Pakistan is a priority for Trump, officials say they have noted an improvement in relations with Washington.

Washington brokered a ceasefire when border fighting between India and Pakistan threatened to escalate into all-out war, Trump hosted powerful army chief Asim Munir for lunch at the White House, and Islamabad said it would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Some analysts believe that the renewed US interest in Pakistan may not be related to oil as much as its to access minerals and rare earths, of which Pakistan is believed to have large, unexplored deposits.

This is particularly true given that US officials attended a Pakistani Minerals Investment Forum last April.

The most ambitious attempt to discover oil in Pakistan ended in 2019, when a consortium including ExxonMobil searched off the coast of Karachi but found no oil or gas deposits.