Haaretz: Will Israel survive until 2040?

Aluf Benn, editor-in-chief of Haaretz newspaper, wrote that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had predicted the demise of the State of Israel by 2040, but the reality is that the strongest warnings regarding Israel’s survival can be found in the book of a former Soviet dissident.

In 1970, Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik was a young historian at Moscow State University when he published his sensational book, “Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?”

In his article, Aluf Benn points out that Amalric’s prophecy seemed utopian and exaggerated, but he nevertheless accurately predicted the collapse of the Red Empire, even though he didn’t live to see his prophecy fulfilled.

After being imprisoned and exiled from his country, he died in a car accident in Spain.

In describing the factors contributing to the Soviet collapse, the author predicted a long and exhausting war, waged by weak and decrepit leaders, that would drain the Soviet government’s resources and legitimacy, although, according to the editor of the Israeli newspaper, he believed the context for this collapse would be a war with China, not a quagmire in the mountains of Afghanistan.

According to the article, Israeli intelligence assessments resemble Amalrik’s prophecy.

Although they correctly identified the timing of an imminent threat to the country in 2023, they predicted that the attack would come from the north, not the south.

Aluf Benn, drawing on the approach of the young Soviet historian, said the question that should be asked is: Is it possible that the Iranian leader is correct in his prediction that Israel will cease to exist by 2040?

And what process could lead to this?

Aluf Benn added, “The Soviet Union wasn’t ultimately defeated in a nuclear world war, but rather collapsed from within”.

He emphasized that there is no military solution, no “multi-layered defense system” or bold, long-range bombing that can neutralize the threat of internal collapse.

Looking at Israel today, are there any warning signs of its collapse?

Aluf Benn asks before answering that the country’s stable economic conditions and the crowded beaches and restaurants don’t conceal what he believes are clear indications of the state’s disintegration in every area, reflected in the spread of violent crime, internal divisions, and a loss of hope.

Aluf Benn criticized Israel’s absolute dependence on the United States, to the point that even Israeli leftists now see the “mercurial” President Donald Trump as a savior and peacemaker, just as the far right pins its hopes on evacuating the Gaza Strip of its inhabitants.

He continued that the phenomenon of Israelis emigrating with their children to Australia every week indicates an unhealthy trend – as he described it – the country is following, and is no less dangerous than the Israeli army’s boasting about eliminating a senior activist affiliated with Hamas.

As public anxiety grows, the Israeli political leadership becomes increasingly disconnected from reality, according to the article, noting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is focusing on promoting conspiracy theories about the attack launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023.

According to the article, Netanyahu’s relentless pursuit of glorifying himself as an alternative to the checks and balances in state institutions will only increase his isolation and paranoia, both from real and imagined enemies.

The war must end before Gaza devours Israel and never returns, just as Amalrik warned the rulers of the Soviet Union, who refused to heed his warnings.

Thus, in Aluf Benn’s opinion, the political system is preoccupied with deepening internal divisions rather than rebuilding Israel from the rubble of judicial turmoil and endless wars.

He believes that Israel still has one opportunity to halt its internal disintegration and refute Khamenei’s prophecy of annihilation: those competing for Netanyahu’s throne must formulate a vision for the “day after”.

Finally, Aluf Benn concluded: The first item in this vision must be to end the war before Gaza devours Israel and never returns, just as Amalrik warned the rulers of the Soviet Union, who refused to heed his warnings.