The Guardian: Putin’s friends in the West

In an Article at The Guardian newspaper, by Simon Tisdale entitled “Putin is trapped and desperate… will his friends in the West save him?”

The Tisdale believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin caught himself in a trap by invading Ukraine, as he didn’t expect an indefinite stalemate at the military level, car bombings in Moscow, or humiliating attacks on the fortified peninsula of Crimea.

“The endless military quagmire is not a scenario that Putin can tolerate, because slow Western sanctions are eroding his economy and steadily draining manpower and military equipment, so, what are his options?”

The Tisdale argues that with increasing Western pressure on Putin, his option is to raise the cost of the war on Ukraine’s backers and thus undermine Kyiv’s resistance.

Tisdale noted the leaders of Britain, France and Germany declaring their long-term support for Ukraine last week.

But Putin has many means by which he can undermine Western unity and remain strong, as “Europe is full of easily exploitable potential flashpoints and geopolitical fault lines inherited from the Soviet era.

Likewise, Russia has a number of allies and sympathizers scattered across the politically fractured European landscape.

Tisdale wonders: Will Putin’s friends in the West contribute to his rescue?

These friends are listed, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is “already in Putin’s pocket”, after Moscow ensured his survival after his rigging of the 2020 presidential election sparked nationwide protests, and the writer considered that “Lukashenko will do as he is told”.

Within the European Union, Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, is seen as Putin’s Trojan horse.

Like many on the far right in Europe, Orbán admires Putin’s bigoted nationalist ideology and shares his racist and homophobic view.

Orbán has repeatedly blocked EU sanctions against Moscow and signed a solo gas deal with the Kremlin last month, so it is clear that Orbán cannot be trusted.

The collapse of Bulgaria’s reformist government in June, and subsequent talk of mending ties with Moscow, raised concern that Putin was gaining influence to divide the European Union.

According to Tisdale, Italy has many leaders of the two far-right parties, Putin’s supporters, who are expected to join a ruling coalition after next month’s elections, including Matteo Salvini and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Tisdale listed flashpoints in Europe that Putin can use to stir up old conflicts and divert attention from Ukraine, including the possibility of his dependence on major politicians from outside the European Union such as Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia, whom his opponents call “Little Putin” to provoke conflict in the region.

Troubled Western Balkans (Between Serbs and Bosnians).

“Ethnically divided Moldova and Georgia, and the presence of Russian forces on their soil, are also potential flashpoints.

The third is Kaliningrad, where Putin deployed hypersonic missiles this month to intimidate NATO neighbors.

Estonia in particular, with its ethnic Russian minority, appears to be Putin’s target.

Tisdale pointed out that Putin’s efforts to spread fear, instability and economic pain extend beyond Europe, which makes countries think twice before opposing Russia, pointing to the freezing of the Security Council’s role through the use of its veto.

The article concluded, “Putin’s reckless brinkmanship at the occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine suggests that he would risk almost anything to win, as he’s quietly desperate and getting more and more dangerous day by day.