The excitement of German politics in 2019

Kay Alexander Schulz

Deutsche Welle

Germans are fond of political stability, and that is what Chancellor Merkel likes too.

However, German policy promises many things in 2019, other than stability.

Will Germany see new elections during the new year?

The overthrow of a German Chancellor is not easy.

In any case, the parliament cannot, without certain conditions, take a decision to withdraw confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Something like this happened in the past during the Weimar Republic, which was unstable, which helped the rise of the Nazis and the seizure of power by Adolf Hitler in 1933.

Based on these historical experiences were the first experiments in the democracy of the Germans learned the pioneers of the Basic Law and decided in 1949 that it cannot accept a request for withdrawal of trust only if it is “build”.

So if there is a successor to Merkel in a majority in parliament.

But an opponent who can form a majority against Merkel is not on the horizon.

Merkel is ranked first among politicians in 2019, even though she is no longer president of the Christian Democratic Party, but “only” a consultant to the alliance between the Christian Alliance parties and the Socialists.

“Merkel still controls the strings of the game, she cannot be turned against her will”, says political expert Thorstenen Fez.

As long as Merkel wants it

So far Merkel is answering the question of how long she wants to remain a chancellor by referring to the normal end of the term of government, meaning in 2021.

But she is also ready to make changes, as recently demonstrated by the sudden abdication of the party presidency.

On the eve of the victims, they can announce their withdrawal.

As did Willy Brandt, one of her predecessors in 1974.

The Constitution, with its primary aim of stability, does not necessarily provide for new elections.

A transitional adviser could be appointed and new elections could be held to appoint an adviser.

But this will not be an honorable end to Merkel’s era.

It is best to raise the question of confidence in Parliament.

Even in this case, the principle of stability is in place: new elections will be avoided if a new adviser is found, such as Ingrid Kramp-Karrenbauer, who favors Merkel as her successor if the chancellor decides to retire early.

A new partner without new elections?

So far we have touched on the theoretical side.

“But all the coalition parties are concerned and their reputation is shattered”, says Fez.

“It cannot be a permanent situation”, especially as the SPD is unstable.

After Europe’s election in May 2019 or with the end-of-year interim coalition outcome, Social Democrats could be forced to step down to ease pressure inside the party.

Merkel can continue to work with a minority government with the acceptance of the Greens and the Liberal Party.

Kramp-Karrenbauer may take over in 2020 and form a real alliance with new partners.

Coalition parties want to avoid organizing new elections in 2019 for several reasons.

“There is no desire” to hold new elections, said new Secretary-General of the Christian Democratic Party, Paul Tsimyak, because, based on current opinion polls, they are risking a new parliamentary election and career.

The German president seems to prefer a way out without going to the polls, knowing that he is responsible for calling for new elections, according to the constitution.

In the autumn of 2019, three parliamentary elections will be held in eastern Germany, which the Christian Democratic Party in particular must overcome.

Olaf Schultz, the SPD’s deputy chancellor and Merkel, a government ally, is facing a difficult turn.

Election year 2019: Good prospects for the alternative party for Germany

What supports Merkel is that the majority of citizens want to stay as a consultant, as recently revealed opinion polls.

Her popularity rose again.

But its big opponents, the right-wing populace, could cause trouble in 2019, for example in the European Parliament elections.

First in the European elections.

“These secondary elections support the protesting parties”, says Fez.

The BADP plans to form a network within the European Parliament that will include populists from Italy and Austria.

It is not known whether the populists will succeed.

But these European elections will produce more seats, more money and a broader impact.

Municipal elections will be held in nine German states where the Alternative Party for Germany can be established within the parliaments of cities and constituencies.

Theoretically, Merkel’s party can return the lost voters to the Alternative Party for Germany.

If this is not achieved, the times of unrest are programmed within the Christian Democratic Party.

The elections in 2019 will ultimately decide whether the government is viable or not, and then the prospect of early elections increases, as the expert says.