Satellite images show Iran expands its ballistic missile production

Recent satellite imagery showed major expansions at two major Iranian ballistic missile facilities, and two US researchers estimated the expansions were aimed at increasing missile production, three senior Iranian officials confirmed.

The expansion of the facilities follows an agreement in October 2022 under which the Iran agreed to send missiles to Russia it was seeking for its war on Ukraine.

US officials said Iran also supplies missiles to Yemen’s Houthi group and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, both of which are in the “axis of resistance” backed by Iran against Israel.

Images taken by commercial satellite company Planet Labs of the Modarres military garrison in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April revealed more than 30 new buildings at the two sites near Tehran.

According to Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, “such actions were linked to missile production and designed to prevent an explosion in one building from detonating highly flammable materials in nearby buildings”.

Based on photos of the two facilities, Lewis said that the expansions in Khojir began in August last year and in the Modarres garrison in October.

Experts say Iran’s arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than three thousand missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads.

Three Iranian officials, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, confirmed expansions at the Modarres garrison and Khojir complex to increase production of conventional ballistic missiles… One official said, “Why not?”

A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also double drone production.

The source added that drones and missile components will be sold to Russia, and the Houthis will be provided with drones and Hezbollah with missiles.

Tehran has previously denied supplying drones and missiles to Russia and Houthis.

Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdul Salam said increasing Iran weapons production would have no impact on Yemen because the Houthis build and develop aircraft independently of Iran.

Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs images with associate research analyst Decker Evlith at the CNA think tank in Washington as part of Project Middlebury, which monitors Iran’s missile infrastructure.

“We know that Russia is seeking low-cost missile capabilities, and it has gone to Iran and North Korea,” Lewis said.

Moscow and Pyongyang have denied sending missiles from North Korea to Russia.

Neither the Russian embassy in Washington nor the Northern Korea mission to the United Nations responded to requests for comment.

In separate interviews, the researchers said the images didn’t show the types of missiles that would be produced at the new facilities, which appear to be under construction.

Any increase in Iran production of missiles or drones would be a source of concern for the United States, which says Iranian drones are helping Russia continue its offensive on Ukrainian cities, and also a concern for Israel as it fends off attacks by Iran-allied groups such as Hezbollah.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the researchers’ analysis.

A spokesman for the US National Security Council declined to confirm their estimates, saying the United States had taken various measures, including sanctions, aimed at limiting the production and export of Iran missiles and drones.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) oversees the sites of Shahid Modaris and Khojir.

The IRGC controls large swathes of Iran’s economy and is directly run by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Both sites have long been associated with the development and production of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles for Tehran’s space program.

On November 12, 2011, a huge explosion destroyed a large part of the Shahid Modarres site linked to solid-fuel missiles and killed 17 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Among the dead was General Hassan Moghaddam, whom Tehran considers the architect of its ballistic missile program.

The second Iranian official said construction at Shahid Modarres, which began after the 2011 blast, had accelerated last year.

“I think the Iranians may have chosen not to fortify buildings with sandwalls (before the explosion) because they didn’t want to draw attention to them… They learned the lesson in the harsh way,” Lewis said.

Some experts consider the Shahid Modarres facility to be the birthplace of Iran’s missile program.