The Russian factor which is conceptually an adjunct to Erdoğan in his quest, it is known that Turkey has suffered great economic jolt after dropping the Russian aircraft and Russia imposing economic sanctions.
This incident contributed to Erdoğan and helped him bringing, Mr. Davutoğlu out of the political arena and show himself to be innocent of all errors.
Turkey actually exceeded the zero phase problems into 1001 problem, with the eternal Armenian issue, a historical conflict with Kurds, Syrian crisis and Iraq, Iran and dispute with Europe, and wrath over America.
How the president will deal with all these files and conflicts?
Erdoğan is attacking countries in Europe and accuse them of fascism and Nazism, in the time that we see him being hostile and antagonize everybody, without leaving single friend that can stand and support him.
With upcoming information about signs of a new crisis with Russia, which will turn the whole area around Turkey to raged flaming area, with internal issues on various aspects.
Some reports shows the number of Russian tourists who visited Turkey in 2014, that reached 4 million tourists, to assume that each one of them had spent during their tourist trip to Turkey $1000 and of course, this amount is metaphorical amount, however, how much would the total spent by Russian tourists in Turkey in 2014?
So what is the total income of US Dollar or Euros currency that entered the Turkish treasury only from this sector?
It is worth mentioning that the statistical predictions of the number of Russian tourists who will visit Turkey 2017 will reach more than 7 million tourists.
Having over this figure, of course if nothing happens, with signs of new crisis with Russia, adding to this, the threat of terrorism in Turkey.
Turkey’s investments and large commercial exchanges with Russia exceeds billions of dollars with many Turkish companies that have projects within Russia or Russian companies operating in Turkey, plus Turkey depend on supplying a lot of agricultural and food products with other Raw materials, that provide large income to the country, by exporting them to Russia overland across Georgia to the North Caucasus due to low costs of land transportation relatively, with road transport routes between Turkey and Arabic countries and Gulf are closed because of the situation in Iraq and Syria, therefore one of the most important economic arteries for Turkey is Russia, and its sensitive and very important.
Adding to this, Turkey depended on securing its gas supplies via Russian gas which is covering more than %52 of Turkey’s need, with renewing the talks and the work to go forward with the gas pipeline project with Russia, in addition to projects related to nuclear facilities for power generation, working in cooperation with Russia.
Erdoğan is aware that he have to maintain a relationship with Russia for these reasons with the need to find solutions in the Syrian file, which Russia now possessed its keys, in light of his dispute with Europe which I believe would remain unstable even if the current congestion got reduced, perhaps after the referendum, which is the reason behind this dispute in the first place, so that the results of this referendum will reflect on how Turkey will deal with many files in the near future.
After Mr. Ahmet Davutoğlu being put out of the political arena and exemption him from the Prime Minister position and the leadership of the Party, Erdoğan found his missing person that will suit this period of time with his old friend, Mr. Binali Yıldırım, the strong friendship between the two men getting back in time since 1994 when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was the Mayor of Istanbul and Mr. Binali Yıldırım was the Director of Marine Lines in Istanbul.
Binali Yıldırım was ardent to Erdoğan’s ideas and dreams, which he put himself at the disposal of Erdoğan and his obedient and loyal to his ambitions.
With this fact, this person is the perfect guy for this stage for Erdoğan, with him help and work to pass these constitutional amendments will and Mr. Binali Yıldırım may enter the history as the last Prime Minister in the history of Turkey.
The one final issue, that I believe, is Erdoğan’s problem with the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad after the great friendship which lasted for several years, that later appeared what was the reason behind this friendship and hidden purpose from that convergence.
The problem between Erdoğan and Assad had become personal, after a failed gas pipeline plan project and the idea of convincing Assad with the Idea of allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria to join the political life in the country, which was the last warning from Erdoğan to Assad before the doors of hell being wide open on Syria.
I’m not clearing the Syrian regime from any accusations by my words, but I’m just talking about a specific issue that was known now.
After the Syrian President refused these things, Syria entered alongside the whole region to a bloodbath that still continues to this day.
It certainly, that the issue become more complicated by the time passes with the failure of overthrowing the Syrian regime, and with the Iranian support to Assad, and the final nail in the coffin of Erdoğan’s desire to topple the Assad regime comes after the Russian intervention, Its understood why Russia got involved fully in the Syrian Crisis, because they want to completely get rid of all foreign militants belonging to the former Soviet Union Republics and militants from Chechnya and the North Caucasus who were fighting under the banner of Islamic State or Al Nusra front (Sham liberation).
One of the main reasons for the Russian strong intervention in Syria is for proactive process before the war come closer on Russia’s borders and perhaps within Russian territory, with the recent terrorist attack in Saint Petersburg Metro is another assertion of that apparently.
Russia’s major concerns to secure the situation in the Middle East in the first place and prevent any further American influence in the region, in case of Russia lost most of its allies in the region and Syria the last one that left, which Russia had succeeded to do so far, it is wise from Turkey to be a catalyst in this line because it simply would serve Turkish interests in the long run.
And when we talk about the relationship of Russia and Turkey, we must address the Caucasus region and their people, and they are located in Turkey with millions, and have an influential role in the future of the relationship between the two countries.
Russia knows that Erdoğan has a key influence on a lot of those things, and today regarding the Syrian crisis, with some progress in political road after the Astana talks and Russia’s control on the stage of the Syrian issue towards the solution and that Turkey must come to a deal with the Russian leadership to reach a formula to filter all the armed groups that are classified as terrorist which they started to be gathered and dragged to Idlib.
This topic if we want to get more in depth and searching with scrutiny and complexity, will require long and many lines, with the need to listen to others opinions.
But it keeps us in the end agree that Turkey today stands at an important crossroads either progress and leads to stability and prosperity or lead the Country of the red and white crescent and star towards a bloodbath may be more hideous and ugly than what happened in Syria.
All these terrorists who came across Turkey to Syria and Iraq, where will they go next?
The work today is towards regroup them in idlib which not much away from the Turkish borders, so assembling those in an area like this is only the beginning for exterminating them somehow after reaching an agreement or a final agreement brings together all the parties.
Only the future will show us what is that big deal will be and look like and the Turkish Russian cooperation method, how will the situation regarding Turkish relations crisis with Europe will go, Erdoğan’s problem with the Kurds, which is probably as the events of these days, it is not moving towards the direction that he wants, with the advent of serious American support for Kurds with Russian approval, and this is part of the Russian-Turkish dispute, and clearly the Syrian President has nothing to do with this issue anymore.
Also how things will go for the countries in the region and of course what is the fate that Turkey will confront inside this continuing major turmoil in the region that is on for years now, with very expensive costs in terms of resources and infrastructure and most importantly the lives and the future of the people.
We have to wait and see with hope to see Turkey heading in the proper line that serve the interests of the people and not the interests and the dreams of some transient individual no matter who is this person.