Nusrat al Islam group continues to expand beyond the African Sahel region in hesitation
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group, an international NGO, is continuing its expansion beyond the Sahel into West African coastal states, but is reluctant to establish a permanent presence there, according to a report released Friday by the International Crisis Group, an international NGO based in Brussels.
“The move represents a strategic dilemma for the group”, the report said, adding that decisions on regional expansion are one of the factors that test its cohesion the most.
“The armed group’s local leadership has a more direct interest in expansion, whether to obtain additional resources or to consolidate its influence within the group”, he said, and that it may exert strong pressure on the central leadership, which in turn tends to favor consolidating existing gains to avoid scattering resources.
“These conflicts of interest may explain the slowdown in the group’s expansion towards coastal states,” he said, compared to what some observers feared in the late last decade.
In response to this threat, the report recommended that coastal states focus on intelligence work and cooperation with local communities, avoid hasty military deployment on the border, and revive security cooperation with Sahel countries.
He said countries concerned with the threat of expansion should seek possible compromises with armed groups with the aim of reducing levels of violence.
According to estimates based on data from Us based ACLED organization, which specializes in monitoring global conflicts, the group “Nusrat Islam wal Muslimin” is involved in 16,023 incidents of violence, resulting in the death of 39,850 people in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Benin, and Togo, since its establishment in March 2017 until the end of 2025.
