Maariv: This is how Russia is working to re-establish its influence after the collapse of the Assad regime

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime was a political earthquake that shook the Kremlin and demonstrated Moscow’s failure to protect its main ally in the Middle East.

This setback represented a huge strategic loss, especially since Russia – with Iran’s support – had saved the Baath regime between 2015 and 2017.

According to an article at the Israeli Maariv newspaper, the failure in Syria caused great damage to Russia’s position as a global power and affected the prestige of its president, Vladimir Putin, personally.

The loss of Russian military bases in Syria – including the Hmeimim air base and the port of Tartus – also weakened Moscow’s ability to influence other regional conflicts, such as the conflicts in Libya, Sudan, and the African Sahel countries.

However, the collapse of the Syrian regime represents an opportunity for Putin to reformulate his strategies and achieve gains in other areas, while Moscow appears to be facing major challenges, its new strategies may return it to a position of strength on the international stage, according to the article.

The article pointed out that Russia, despite the heavy losses, is trying to rearrange its cards in Syria through diplomatic steps aimed at negotiating with the Syrian opposition and some armed factions.

These steps include recognizing the Syrian interim government in Damascus and seeking to remove some organizations, such as Hay’at Tahrir al Sham from the terrorist lists.

Moscow also seeks to maintain its military presence, especially in its military bases.

This strategy, according to the article, aims to secure new trade corridors passing through Syria and Afghanistan, despite the risks associated with the escalation of tensions and the “return of regional terrorist activity”.

The article pointed out that Türkiye’s rising role in Syria posed a new challenge to Moscow, which prompted it to improve relations with Ankara and enhance military cooperation, including air defense deals and S-400 missiles, with the aim of reducing Ankara’s dependence on Washington.

In addition, Russia is trying to exploit its increasing logistical dependence on Türkiye to enhance its regional and international influence, indicating new geopolitical shifts.

On the other hand, Moscow is working to improve its relations with the Gulf Arab states – such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE – which fear Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambitions in the region.

These transformations may have a direct impact on Ukraine, and could push Putin to escalate military operations there as part of his attempts to compensate for territorial losses.

The article continued, Russia’s withdrawal from Syria may give Putin an opportunity to focus on Ukraine, which is the main strategic goal, as victory here doesn’t only mean achieving military gains, but rather represents a fundamental step in confronting the United States and its Western allies.

According to the article, Russia seeks to compensate for its losses in the Middle East by expanding its influence in Africa, especially Libya.

Moscow has begun transferring weapons and military equipment to areas such as Tobruk and Benghazi to strengthen its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean region, taking advantage of the political and security crises in Africa.

Also, Moscow sees the Arctic as a strategic opportunity to compensate for its losses in Syria, and this region – which is witnessing a significant increase in commercial activities due to the melting of the ice – represents a new arena for extending the influence of Russia, which claims to control 70% of the resources there.

Russia is also making plans to develop its ports along the Northern Sea Route as part of its “Polar Silk Road” project, through which it seeks to improve trade links between Europe and Asia.

The article concluded, these moves reflect a shift towards a multipolar world, as Russia is now focusing on strengthening its relations with China and BRICS countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa, and this trend may give it an opportunity to reshape its international position despite the setback in Syria.