Le Monde Diplomatique: What are the reasons why Trump cannot wage war on Iran?

The French newspaper Le Monde Diplomatique on Sunday highlighted the security tension in the Gulf region between Washington and its allies on the one hand and Tehran on the other.

In, its report, Le Monde Diplomatique, revealed 15 reasons that prevent Washington from launching an attack on Tehran, at least directly.

According to the report, these 15 reasons are:

1. The loss of the US military to all its recent wars in the Middle East, especially in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, and the administration of President Donald Trump should be aware of this.
2. Trying to stick to his electoral promises, he promised to withdraw the United States from the complex situation in the Middle East, and carried out in Afghanistan and Syria.
3. War may turn into a burden for Trump, although it may seem like a golden opportunity for a president to stand at the threshold of a new presidential election in 2020.
4. It is difficult to wage a war against Iran because it is a vast country with a population of 81 million. It has a history of thousands of years, a national that transcends political and religious divisions, and a regional influence extending to Damascus, Sanaa, and Ankara, even beyond.
5. There’s a state of anxiety and doubt on the horizon about any possible war between America and Iran of the form of Turkish, Kurdish and Russian positions in the event of a widening confrontation.
6. Washington cannot ignore the negative effects on the oil sector and global fuel prices in the event of conflict, as well as geopolitical changes.
7. Washington may resort to new tactics other than aerial bombardment, such as increasing its economic sanctions on Tehran or launching cyber-attacks on Iranian information centers.
8. Tehran has significant potential in the field of air defense and missiles, as well as a fleet of unmanned aircraft, which would increase the risk of any offensive approach targeting its territory.
9. Almost semi-clandestine operations in which Iran might succeed by relying on its Revolutionary Guard, which mastered the art of provocation and “disproportionate” fighting, using its elements in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
10. Economic, technical and military auctions risk undermining the possibility of conserving Tehran since the signing of the nuclear agreement in 2015, and raising the level of congestion of the political and middle classes that weigh heavily on them.
11. Iran’s desire to prove its non-submission and surrender, so as to appear in the position of force against the attempt to clamp down on them economically led by the US.
12. The ineffectiveness of the idea of ​​inciting internal Iranian public opinion against its leaders, a method that has already been tested against the Iranian leadership but hasn’t been very effective.
13. The US position is weak, both politically and morally, as Washington appears to be the trouble maker, which is the position it has adopted for more than a year has exacerbated tensions in the Persian Gulf.
14. Iran is betting on the end of the nuclear deal, the restarting of some uranium enrichment reactors in July and the resumption of its nuclear program, which is already announced today that its enriched uranium is over 300 kg.
15. Washington may worry about Iran attacking US interests in the Arabian Gulf or in the Near East, or the usual threat of blocking or freezing maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.