Foreign Policy: Israel is experiencing a dangerous decline in its strategy

The Foreign Policy magazine reported that Israel is living in a serious predicament, against the backdrop of the severe internal divisions experienced by the settlers, and the failure to achieve the goals of the military campaign in the Gaza Strip, with the possibility of the war expanding.

Moreover, Israel’s recent behavior has seriously damaged its global image, and it has become a pariah in ways that were previously unimaginable.

After more than ten months, Israel’s genocidal campaign against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in addition to the escalating violence by settlers in the West Bank, has squandered that wave of global support.

Support in the United States for Israel’s actions is declining sharply, and younger Americans, including many younger American Jews oppose the Biden administration’s lenient response to Israel’s actions.

Former Deputy Head of the Israeli National Security Council, Eran Etzion, wrote on X that Israel is facing a dangerous, multi-dimensional strategic situation.

He added, “There is a gap between reality and the perception of reality, and between the Israeli public and most members of the government and coalition… It’s a huge and very dangerous gap”.

Etzion pointed out that Netanyahu is seeking to ignite a comprehensive regional war and force Iran to be dragged into it, stressing that the US administration has reached a point of historic weakness as a result of the accumulation of unfortunate operations and circumstances.

Blaming Netanyahu ignores a deeper problem, the Foreign Policy said, the gradual erosion of Israel’s strategic thinking has been taking place over the past 50 years.

Israel’s achievements and tactical prowess during its first two decades tend to obscure the extent to which the major strategic choices it has made since the six days war, 1967 have helped undermine its security… the turning point was Israel’s victory in the 1967 war.

The outcome wasn’t as miraculous as it seemed at the time among other things, US intelligence predicted that Israel would win easily, but the speed and scope of the victory surprised many, and helped foster a sense of hubris that has undermined Israel’s strategic judgment ever since.

The main mistake, as insightful Israeli scholars have repeatedly claimed, was the decision to retain, occupy, and gradually colonize the West Bank and Gaza, as part of a long-term effort to create a “Greater Israel”.

The next clear sign of the erosion of Israeli strategic judgment was the ill-fated invasion of Lebanon in 1982.

The invasion was a short-lived military success, but it led to the Israeli army’s occupation of southern Lebanon, which in turn led directly to the creation of Hezbollah, whose increasingly powerful resistance eventually forced Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000.

The expulsion of the PLO from Lebanon did not stop Palestinian resistance: it paved the way for the first intifada in 1987, another clear signal that the Palestinians wouldn’t abandon their homeland and wouldn’t submit to permanent Israeli subjugation.

Although the Israelis are farsighted and have realized that the Palestinian issue won’t go away, successive Israeli governments have acted in ways that have made the problem worse.

A recent clear example of Israeli strategic shortsightedness is its vehement opposition to international efforts to negotiate the limits of Iran’s nuclear program.

For good strategic reasons, Israel wants to remain the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, and it doesn’t want to see Iran, its main regional rival, get the bomb.

The Foreign Policy magazine pointed out that one of the important factors is the feeling of arrogance and impunity, which comes from the United States’ protection and respect for Israel’s desires.

If the most powerful country in the world supports you no matter what you do, the need to think carefully about your actions will inevitably diminish.

Moreover, Israel’s tendency to see itself as a victim, and to blame all opposition to its policies on anti-Semitism, doesn’t help, because it makes it difficult for Israeli leaders and their public to see how their actions might provoke the hostility they face.

Israel’s actions also threaten its long-term prospects, so anyone who wants a bright future for it should be particularly concerned about the decline of its strategic judgment.

Its short-sighted, vengeful behavior has inflicted enormous harm on innocent Palestinians for decades and continues to do so today.

However, its chances of ending Palestinian resistance are very slim, the Foreign Policy’s report concluded.