Foreign Affairs: Israel is pushing Saudi Arabia into Iran’s arms

By escalating its attacks on Iran and its allies, Israel seeks to increase Saudi Arabia’s dependence on the United States and Israel, especially in the security and technological fields.

However, this escalation is having the opposite effect; Riyadh is turning to Tehran for security guarantees and presenting itself as a mediator between Iran and Israel, rather than an ally of Israel, according to Foreign Affairs magazine.

Over the past years, especially after the signing of the “Abraham Accords” in 2020, Israel has believed that its military and technological strength could win it allies among the Gulf states.

Israeli officials also assumed that escalation in the region would make the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, more dependent on American security protection, and thus push them further toward an alliance with Israel.

These officials see self-interest as the main motivation for many Arab leaders, not the Palestinian issue or the war on Gaza.

In his speech at the United Nations last September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the Gulf states as Israel’s “Arab peace partners” and called on Saudi Arabia to ally with Israel against Iran’s evil designs.

However, Israel’s wars on Gaza and Lebanon have prompted Saudi Arabia and Tehran to strengthen ties, as Riyadh tries to play a mediating role to promote stability in the region while maintaining its strategic relations with both the United States and Iran.

Given these dynamics, Israel’s strategy of escalation appears to have backfired.

Saudi Arabia has recommitted to an independent Palestinian state and expanded its strategic options by strengthening ties with Iran, the United States, and even China.

At the same time, Iran is under pressure to step up its security talks with Saudi Arabia and provide stronger assurances to the Gulf states, making such assurances more valuable than any intelligence Israel might provide on Iranian threats.

For Washington, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement may seem like bad news, especially since the United States has been seeking a normalization agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv for years.

However, Washington must accept the change in policy adopted by the Kingdom, as Riyadh seeks to be close to Iran and Israel at the same time, believing that this position helps it calm regional tensions.

The Israeli escalation also aims to push Saudi Arabia to rely more on US security guarantees conditional on normalization with Israel.

However, Saudi Arabia hasn’t closed the door to any options, and has continued its talks with Iran, as well as exploring opportunities for normalization with Israel on the condition of establishing an independent Palestinian state.

In light of these developments, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to lead the process of achieving a two-state solution.

By strengthening its balanced relations with regional and international parties, Riyadh seeks to restore its role as an influential regional power, capable of reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and pushing Israel to adopt more moderate policies.