Foreign Affairs: Hamas is winning – Where does their strength lie?

Israel claims to be on the verge of defeating Hamas, after nine months after the October 7 attack, Israel doesn’t appear on the verge of victory, nor has Hamas been defeated, according to Foreign Affairs Robert Pape.

Israel’s deadly attacks, with at least 70,000 tons of bombs, on northern and southern Gaza have killed 40,000 combat troops, more than 37,000 civilians and displaced 80% of the population.

These attacks have turned Gaza into a ghost town after depriving its residents of water, food and electricity and leaving those who remain on the brink of famine.

But why is Hamas growing stronger and the problem eluding Israel?

The war between Israel and Hamas has turned into a stubborn guerrilla war.

The flaw lies in Israel’s military strategy, not its tactics.

Israel didn’t realize Hamas’s true strength, nor did it realize that the massacres and destruction only strengthened the movement.

Israel thought that the more Hamas death toll there was, the closer it would be to victory, and claimed to have killed 14,000 Hamas fighters out of 40,000.

Hamas on the other hand, insists that only 8,000 fighters were killed, while the US intelligence sources put the real number at 10,000.

Despite its losses, Hamas still controls large swathes of Gaza, enjoying the support of the population and access to humanitarian aid and a return to places cleared by Israel.

A new Israeli report even points to an increase in the number of fighters in northern Gaza.

Hamas relies on ambushes and improvised mines, which could prolong the war until the end of 2024, according to Israel’s national security adviser.

Hamas is still capable of striking Israel, and 80% of its tunnel network is still fit to store weapons and escape from Israelis.

It’s gaining more support among civilians, although the Israeli army continues its operations in the south.

The Hamas movement’s strength lies in its ability to recruit and attract new generations of fighters and activists ready to die for their cause.

This remarkable community support enables the Hamas movement to rejuvenate, acquire resources, and avoid being disclosed.

Young people are encouraged to join the ranks of Hamas because they are angered by the loss of loved ones and by Israel’s use of excessive force, but most important of all is the culture of self-sacrifice, an ideology on which the Hamas movement relies, where fighters who gave their lives for the cause are honored and their comrades urged to go down this path for great honor.

Opinion polls (PSR) in June 2024 show that political support for Hamas compared to its rival Fateh increased by 40% for the former compared to only 20% for the latter.

73% of Palestinians believe that Hamas was right in the October 7 attack.

This explains their reluctance to provide intelligence to Israel about Hamas leaders or hostages despite the enormous loss of their relatives’ lives.

Another important asset to the Hamas movement is its sophisticated propaganda campaign that helps it win supporters.

This propaganda directs copious online material to rally Palestinian popular support for victory over Israel.

The propaganda material emphasizes that the Palestinian people have no choice but to fight to get rid of Israel’s atrocities.

It also gives Palestinians hope that victory is certain under Hamas, and emphasizes the importance of sacrifice for the cause.

The grievances on which the Hamas movement relies to inflame feelings are the long persecution of the Palestinian people, the behavior and expansion of settlers, the expulsion of Palestinians from their lands and homes, the decades-long blockade of Palestinians, apartheid policies and other grievances.

Hamas also shows through videos its ability to confront the Israeli army, which is armed with the most powerful heavy weapons and technology.

Hamas fighters appear in full military uniforms, indicating their readiness, as well as religious backgrounds and Quranic verses that legitimize their cause.

All of the above points to the failure of Israel’s military strategy; Hamas is undefeated and is not on the verge of defeat, and its cause has become more popular and attractive.

The war and its horrors will continue within this perspective.