Financial Times: Why can’t Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities alone?

In a report published by the Financial Times, the possibility of Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

The Financial Times wondered whether Israel was capable of striking and destroying Iranian nuclear facilities without US support.

The Financial Times believed that Israel’s destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities without US assistance is unlikely for several reasons.

When US President Joe Biden was asked whether he would support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, he answered unequivocally: The answer comes with no.

However, there are discussions among some extremists in Israel about the need for the Israeli Air Force to carry out such a strike, in response to Tehran’s firing of 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel this week.

However, without US support, a solo Israeli airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be risky and might only delay the nuclear program without destroying it, analysts say.

Why will the Israeli operation be difficult?

The first reason is distance: more than a thousand miles separate Israel from Iran’s most important nuclear sites, meaning Israeli aircraft would need to cross the sovereign airspace of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, and perhaps Türkiye.

The second reason is fuel: The flight to the targets and back would require taking advantage of all of Israel’s available aerial refueling capabilities, leaving little or no margin for error, according to a Congressional Research Service report.

The third reason is Iranian air defense: Iran’s main nuclear sites are heavily fortified, requiring the protection of Israeli bombers using other fighters, which would require the formation of a strike group of about 100 aircraft, according to the research service report.

Are nuclear facilities well protected?

Destroying Iran’s two main nuclear enrichment facilities is a major challenge for Israel.

The fuel enrichment plant at Natanz is located deep underground, while the second, larger plant at Fordo is located inside a mountain.

Destroying these facilities requires the use of weapons capable of penetrating several meters of rock and reinforced concrete before exploding.

Israel has bombs designed to destroy bunkers, such as the GBU-31 it used last week in Beirut to target four buildings in an attempt to kill Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

However, Israeli reports indicate that the use of 80 bombs wouldn’t have been enough to destroy Iran’s most fortified nuclear facilities.

According to analysts, there is only one conventional weapon that could do the job: the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a precision-guided bomb that is about 20 feet long and weighs 30,000 pounds, capable of penetrating 200 feet of ground before exploding.

Has Israel developed bombs specifically for destroying bunkers?

It’s unclear whether Israel has such capabilities, with some former US policymakers have repeatedly suggested that Washington could supply the bombs.

According to Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at the Israeli Defense Ministry, noted that Israel’s F15, F16, and F35 fighter jets cannot carry the bomb.

Moreover, it’s unlikely that Israel could afford a US strategic bomber like the B2 Spirit needed to drop such a bomb.

Alternatively, Israel could use a C130J Hercules aircraft to drop the MOP bomb through its cargo doors, a less effective procedure known as ramp dropping.

However, the MOP isn’t designed for this type of delivery.

Are there alternatives to Israel?

Finally, the Financial Times report concluded by saying that Israeli aircraft could disable nuclear sites by bombing ventilation shafts and supporting infrastructure, impairing the precision of the centrifuges used to enrich uranium, although this wouldn’t completely destroy them.