Biden and Erdogan… the key is in the hands of the Russians

Turkish analyst Yahya Bustan confirmed that the foreign policy of US President-elect Joe Biden will have “serious consequences” all over the world, stressing that the relations of the next White House master with Turkey will have “major repercussions” on the international political scene and the global economy.

In his reading, Bustan saw that the Trump administration launched an economic war against China, ignored the European Union and avoided tensions with Russia, adding that Washington’s policy in the Trump era was in line with the interests of the Israeli occupation.

On the other hand, Bustan pointed out that Trump sought to build a balanced relationship with Turkey, so he went against his predecessor Barack Obama, moved away from Iran, built an alliance with the Gulf states, and encouraged “less experienced and ambitious players”, such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed also supported an anti-Turkish regional alliance in the eastern Mediterranean.

Based on these facts, Bustan called for an analysis of the state of US-Turkish relations during the Trump era, stressing that Turkey’s relationship with the United States is going through a difficult phase.

Bustan explained that the alliance witnessed setbacks during Obama’s second term due to the disparity between Turkish interests in Syria and Washington’s policy, US support for the Kurdistan Workers ’Party (PKK) (classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey), and Washington’s tacit support for the 2016 coup attempt.

Represented by the tensions between Turkey and Israel, and Ankara’s efforts to maintain a certain level of independence regarding US sanctions on Iran.

Despite the harmony between Presidents Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bustan believed that the clash between the two countries’ regional interests was behind the continuing tensions, stopping when Turkey removed from the F-35 program in response to the S-400 deal with Russia, and the limited and temporary sanctions imposed on Ankara, and targeting the Turkish currency and economy.

Bustan, who questioned the way the Biden administration would deal with Turkey, called for monitoring Washington’s relationship with Russia, saying: “If the next president chooses to escalate tensions with Moscow, unlike his predecessor, Turkey will be more valuable in the eyes of American and Russian policymakers – and thus it will be blessed more room to maneuver.

Consequently, the Turks may have more influence in the Syrian (especially in Idlib) and Libyan theaters.

Regarding Trump’s Israeli policy, Bustan called for anticipating the extent of Biden’s keenness to pursue it. 

In addition, Bustan talked about Saudi Arabia’s pledge to provide assistance to the victims of the Izmir earthquake, commenting: “This is a step that suggests that Riyadh may be ready to restore its tense relations with Turkey in light of this new phase”.

Bustan, who linked the strengthening of Turkey’s regional influence to the failure of the alliance centered on the Israeli occupation and sponsored by the Gulf states, to obtain Washington’s blessing, commented: “In fact, Turkey and the United States may reach a solution to the eastern Mediterranean issue in a way that serves the interests of both sides”.

On the level of US-Iranian relations, after the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Bustan called on Turkey to closely monitor the status of relations between Tehran and Washington.

In parallel, Bustan warned that Washington’s sponsorship of the PKK, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (PKK), and the Fethullah Gulen group would represent the greatest challenge for Biden, stressing that the involvement of the Kurdish workers and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units would increase the pressure on Turkish-American relations. 

Bustan also warned against undermining bilateral relations if Biden interfered in Turkish internal affairs.

In conclusion, Bustan stressed the need for Washington and Ankara to take into account their common interests and mandatory areas of cooperation in order for their relationship to succeed, stressing that Turkey is an influential and powerful player in the region.