Axios: Israel warns Washington of Iranian Revolutionary Guard missile maneuvers in prelude to surprise attack against Israel
Israeli officials have warned the US administration that missile drills by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may not be just military exercises, but may constitute a prelude to a surprise attack against Israel.
The warning came over the weekend, amid growing tension and heightened security sensitivity in Israel.
Israeli sources told Axios that the intelligence currently available only indicates military movements inside Iranian territory, with no conclusive evidence of imminent offensive intent.
However, the IDF has become less receptive to risks compared to previous years, especially after the experience of the surprise attack carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Israeli intelligence had raised similar concerns about six weeks ago, following the detection of Iranian missile movements, but those warnings weren’t translated into concrete actions at the time.
An Israeli source said that the probability of an Iranian attack remained below 50%, “but no one is willing to take the risk and consider what is happening as a passing maneuver”.
On the other hand, a US source said that US intelligence doesn’t yet have clear indications that an Iranian attack is imminent, reflecting a divergence in assessment between the Israeli and American sides.
Behind the scenes, sources revealed that IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir made a call to the commander of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, during which he informed him of Israel’s concern about the Iranian missile maneuvers that began a few days ago.
Zamir said some operational moves could be used as cover for a surprise attack, calling for close defensive coordination between US and Israeli forces.
Cooper later visited Tel Aviv, where he met with Zamir and senior Israeli military commanders to discuss developments.
The Israeli military declined to comment formally, and US Central Command didn’t immediately respond.
According to the sources, the greatest danger lies in the possibility of a large-scale confrontation as a result of mutual miscalculation, in light of the belief that each side is planning the attack and seeking to preempt it.
According to Axios, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with US President Donald Trump on December 29 in Miami.
According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu intends to discuss Iran’s efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities, and the possibility of a new strike against it in 2026.
Israeli estimates also indicate that Iran has begun initial steps to rebuild its missile arsenal after the last war, but hasn’t yet regained its full capabilities.
Israeli military intelligence and the Mossad believe that the pace of this recovery doesn’t necessitate urgent military action in the next few months, but it could become a more pressing issue later in the year.
